Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 13 December 2011 / 5

Limited ambition with consistent types looks the route to Aussie profits this week for Paul Krishnamurty

Were it not for a cruel twist of fate, this column would be heading into the final week of the golfing season with a decent chance of turning a small profit, (or more accurately, completing a great escape act from a winless year).

Last week's pick Nicolas Colsaerts raced to four under through his first eight holes on Thursday, and was duly matched for several hundred pounds at one point above our first lay target. The Belgian did actually hit the [20.0] target but as it was only for a small amount, it can't really be counted as a 'winner'.

Sadly, Colsaerts soon imploded, dropping four shots by the 13th, never to be seen on the leaderboard again. Still, at least it shows that profits can be made from trading outsiders, even when they achieve very little.

That sort of moderate achievement may be our best hope this week at the JBWere Australian Masters where, to put it mildly, classy players at big odds are thin on the ground. Initially my eye was trained on a couple of recent winners, but Brad Kennedy and Gavin Coles have both since shortened up, leaving a very sparse shortlist.

Considering shock winners are extremely rare at the best of times in Australia, it is therefore hard to imagine either of my picks actually winning the event. Nevertheless, they are pretty consistent at this level, and well capable of hitting lay targets, so long as we don't set the bar too high.

Firstly, [190.0] chance Terry Pilkadaris is a name Euro Tour watchers may know, particularly as he has contended in various co-sanctioned Asian events over the years. He is also very consistent in his homeland, making the top-20 on ten of his last 12 starts in Australia, including finishing runner-up three times in 2011. Recently in competitive events, Terry was ninth in the New Zealand Open and 15th in the Australian Open.

Likewise, Kieran Pratt has a consistent record in his homeland, making the top-25 on all of his last eight Australian starts. The 23-year-old carried a promising reputation into his professional career, and while he hasn't yet really lived up to it, a home event like this, lacking strength in depth, is within realistic range. The fact he's playing in his home state, on a course he must know inside out and where he finished a respectable 22nd in his rookie season, is another positive and justifies a trade at the huge odds of [240.0].

To reiterate, the chances of either man winning are slim, so rather than setting lay targets at low prices, my plan is to try and get matched at [20.0] and [8.0]. For consistent types like these, that seems perfectly realistic.

Recommended bets
2u Terry Pilkadaris @ [190.0]
1.5u Kieran Pratt @ [240.0]

Place order to lay both players 10u @ [20.0]
Place order to lay both players 15u @ [8.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -19u

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1. Anonymous | 14 December 2011

   im thinking jeff maggert shouldnt be too far away in this field, and a good performance at pga qualifying

2. Anonymous | 14 December 2011

   re your ten to follow comp Paul, it might be an idea to have some sort of limited transfers, maybe before the majors??

3. Paul Krishnamurty | 14 December 2011

   Maggert crossed my mind too, as he's got a great career record on firm, fast courses. Problem is a total lack of recent form, though one would assume he hasn't gone all that way without any hope of success.

   Re ten to follow. I'm going to make some changes. Too many teams had the same players, because everyone had 3 from top-10, 3 from top-20. It may just be better to have no restrictions. After all, a winning strategy might have included picking a team of outsiders, given the 2011 results.

   Not sure about the transfers, as it would become extremely complicated at this end, but open to any suggestions.

4. James Pacheco | 14 December 2011

   Hi Paul,

   A couple of suggestions regarding Ten To Follow, both partly borrowed from Fantasy Football.

   1) You give everyone a budget and then allocate a cost for the Top 30 players in the world based on your own assessment of how well you think they'll do next year. Anyone ranked 31 or higher is just worth the same amount.

   2) Same format as last year except you can't have more than two players from any given country.

   Cheers,

   Jamie Pacheco

5. Anonymous | 19 December 2011

   Super thought from above, especially point 1.

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