Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 December 2011 /

Last week was a good one for favourites but 2011 has been dominated by outsiders so don't rule out a long odds winner in Dubai, says Paul Krishnamurty.

Following on from a week where all three favourites won at single figure prices, it's no surprise to see the world-class market leaders for this week's Race to Dubai finale dominating proceedings, and consequently forcing everyone else's odds out. It goes without saying that the likes of Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and Luke Donald warrant the utmost respect, but are they really so much better than the rest? After all, there are no mugs in this line-up, which consists of the leading 64 players on this season's Race to Dubai.

In reality, the gap between the best and the rest has never been narrower. Last week's favourites bonanza was the exception, rather than the norm, in a year that has seen an unprecedented number of big-priced winners. Looking through the names in this line-up, there are plenty well capable of delivering another upset against the big-guns, including the following two selections.

Nicolas Colsaerts was one of the most improved players during the first half of the season, winning the China Open and nearly reaching the World Matchplay final, and remains well capable of making his mark in the best of company. I picked him for this column three starts ago in the elite HSBC Champions Trophy and, while he blew any chance on day one, Colsaerts at least fought back for a top-20 finish. Last week's 35th in Hong Kong was similarly anonymous, but it's worth noting that he hit over 83% of greens in regulation during the final round, suggesting that his game is in good enough shape to thrive when conditions suit. In this huge-hitter's case, that means a long track with plenty of room off the tee, rather than a narrow layout like Hong Kong GC. In contrast, the Belgian should really appreciate the 7,675 yard Earth Course, and therefore rates potentially huge value at odds of [200.0].

My second pick is more speculative, as Rafael Cabrera-Bello has yet to truly demonstrate his prowess at this level. Nevertheless, the 27 year-old Spaniard has no shortage of talent or potential improvement, and his recent numbers point to a bang-in-form player. Apart from one event in September when he missed the cut, Cabrera-Bello has ranked no worse than 17th for greens in regulation on every start since July. He was runner-up at the Portugal Masters and 15th last week in Hong Kong. Moreover, he has shown some liking for desert golf, finishing seventh in Abu Dhabi and 20th in the Dubai Desert Classic this season, and a respectable 30th in the inaugural running of this event two years ago. He's much improved with experience since, and has enough credentials to warrant a small bet at the huge odds of [360.0].

With the trading plan, I'm adding a third lay order on both players this week. If either man hits just one target we'll make seven units profit.

Recommended Bets
https://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104473527&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
2u Nicolas Colsaerts @ [200.0]
1u Rafael Cabrera-Bello @ [360.0]

Place order to lay both players 10u @ [20.0]
Place order to lay both players 10u @ [8.0]
Place order to lay both players 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -16u

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