Australian Open Odds: Ultra-reliable Aussies to take places

Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 November 2011 /

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Nick O'Hern just loves the Australian Open

"Year in, year out, a simple strategy has paid dividends at the Australian Open. Restrict calculations to the leading dozen in the betting, select a few of them across various win and place markets and you won't go far wrong."

A host of big name Americans are Down Under ahead of the President's Cup but Paul Krishnamurty is swerving them all in favour of a home quartet for a string of top-five and top-10 bets this week

Let's be frank, it's been the toughest year in living memory for golf punting. There have been shocks galore on both sides of the Atlantic, and even when picking winners has been relatively obvious, they've managed to escape my attention. Thankfully, hope is at hand, with the best time of the year for form students finally upon us. Roll on the Australian swing!

Played on some of the world's greatest golf courses, designed to separate the best from the rest, between fields lacking strength in depth, shock winners are virtually non-existent in these events. Only one of the last 20 Australian Open champions started the week at triple-figure odds, and the trends are almost identical for the Masters and PGA. Year in, year out, a simple strategy has paid dividends. Restrict calculations to the leading dozen in the betting, select a few of them across various win and place markets and you won't go far wrong.

This year's triple-crown has an extra twist, with next week's Presidents Cup at Royal Melbourne encouraging several leading Americans to make a rare trip Down Under, in order to acclimatise and fine-tune their games. The presence of eight of their team, plus US-based Aussie Jason Day, makes this the most competitive Aussie Open in living memory.

While in theory that makes picking the winner harder, it also means there is some outstanding value about the usual suspects, particularly in place markets. For while it would be insane to write off the likes of Tiger Woods, Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson in the win market, one must expect at least some of the American contingent to underperform. Few have played much golf since the end of the FedEx Cup in September, and could be forgiven for using this week as part holiday, part preparation. Instead, I'm going for four Aussies with solid tournament credentials in the top-five and top-ten markets, so as not to worry too much about Tiger and co playing a blinder.

My main bet is on a man who has repeatedly delivered on home soil. Renowned as a rare winner, Nick O'Hern may be one to treat with caution in the win market, but is one of golf's most reliable punting propositions when it comes to landing places, particularly in this event.

O'Hern's last five Australian Open attempts have yielded two runners-up spots and also third place in 2009. During the same six year period, seven more triple-crown appearances yielded four further top-three finishes. Such figures suggest he's an odds-on chance to reach the top-ten, and not much more for the top-five. Yet thanks to that strong American presence, O'Hern is available at a whopping [3.65] for the former, and [7.4] for the latter. The fact he's never arrived for his home campaign in better form, having finished sixth in the last two Fall Series events, must be another positive.

Nick is by no means the only tournament specialist available at such good value odds. John Senden was fourth on this course last year, won the title in 2006 and was runner-up the previous year. He's never enjoyed a more consistent season, registering top-30s on 18 of his last 24 events, including seventh and 19th over the last fortnight in Asia. Senden simply has to be there or thereabouts.

Greg Chalmers, champion back in 1998, has made three of the last five top-tens in this event. Given that Greg made his last six cuts in the States, where he has little pedigree, [6.0] about another top-ten looks completely wrong. Finally, a similar type is outsider Stephen Bowditch, who made the top-20 in the last Fall Series event and is at least twice the player at home. Bowditch was 12th in last year's Open, and has three previous top-tens this century.

Top-5 Finish
5u Nick O'Hern @ [7.4]
4u John Senden @ [6.4]

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