Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 January 2012 /

Paul Krishnamurty was in fine form last week, tipping up second place finishers on both tours at big prices, and he has Tiger in his sights on the great man's seasonal debut

Last week's column recommended backing golf's old guard to turn back the clock, and the legend that is Ernie Els very nearly delivered. This week however, as pretty much all the game's top men begin their 2012 campaign in Abu Dhabi, my advice is to do the complete opposite.

The line-up for the Abu Dhabi Championship perfectly illustrates the Gulf region's status as the sport's emerging epicentre, with the world's top-four ranked players choosing this desert venue for their seasonal debut.

Arguably an even greater compliment comes from Tiger Woods' participation, in preference to the US tournament at which we've become used to seeing him shake off any winter rust, and almost always win. Those of us who'd earmarked the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines as our first chance to judge whether he was truly on the way back to superstardom, must now assess his suitability to a track he's never played before.

I'm not convinced, and am strongly against backing Woods at short odds, only marginally ahead of tournament favourites Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer, and significantly shorter than the top-two ranked players Luke Donald and Lee Westwood.

Sure, he won his own Chevron World Challenge event on his final 2011 start, but one swallow does not make a summer. Prior to that, he'd been inconsistent at the Presidents Cup, blown a halfway lead at the Australian Open and finished a mere 30th in the Frys.com Open. There was virtually nothing in either his results, or on-course persona, to suggest Tiger was about to resume his phenomenal previous levels of form.

Of course that isn't to write the man off so far as the rest of the season is concerned. When it comes to the majors, and his favourite US venues such as Firestone, Tiger's pedigree is unrivalled. Even during the worst of times, he finished fourth in consecutive Masters at Augusta. As we saw at Sherwood Country Club in the Chevron, he remains formidable on 'home turf'.

But here he's up against opposition that isn't much inferior to what he'd face in a major, on a course he's never played before and therefore at a serious disadvantage compared to his principal rivals, who have their own impeccable claims.

When it comes to Abu Dhabi, there's no doubt who the man to beat is. Kaymer has won three out of the last four renewals, by a combined total of 13 shots, and was runner-up in the other one. Having confirmed a return to his best by winning the last WGC event in November, Kaymer thoroughly deserves at least the status of joint favourite. The only reason Germany's finest doesn't stand completely apart from the rest is the presence of McIlroy, whom many of us reckon will soon become world number one. Rory's course form is pretty tasty too, improving every year with finishes of 11th, fifth, third and second. While Tiger's home win against 17 rivals was encouraging, it wasn't a patch on Kaymer's triumph in Shanghai, or Rory's win in Hong Kong on his penultimate 2011 start.

So how best to oppose Tiger? Nobody's going to get rich laying [10.0] in the outright market, although I would argue this is a good first step towards building a book. Larger profits, however, might be available by laying him at around [2.0] in the top-ten market, which will be far from a straightforward achievement against a field containing such strength in depth. I'm also looking to back both Kaymer and McIlroy in tournament matchbets against Woods at odds around [1.8].

Recommended Bets
Lay Tiger Woods @ [2.0] for top-ten finish
Back Martin Kaymer in tournament matchbet vs Woods @ [1.8]
Back Rory McIlroy in tournament matchbet vs Woods @ [1.8]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: