Betfair Official Blog

Estoril Open de Portugal Betting: Young Guns will head to Estoril with high hopes, but beware too much early expectation

Click here to view market

Paul Krishnamurty takes an unconventional view in his column this week. He wants us to have a bit of sympathy for extremely talented professional golfers in their teens and early twenties, who he reckons have unrealistic expectations heaped on them.

After all the (justifiable) hype surrounding Rory Mcllroy and his likely targets whilst still a teenager, he was very nearly beaten to the first landmark by European golf's forgotten teenage prodigy, Oliver Fisher. Fisher, widely regarded and well reported as one of the outstanding prospects of his age group, left his previously moderate form behind and looked a certainty in-running to win his first professional event at Sunday's Andalucia Open. But having traded as short as [1.09], inexperience took its toll and the youngster threw it all away on the final hole before eventually succombing on the first play-off hole.

There's no shame attached, and its no disaster for Fisher. He'll learn from the experience and come out stronger the next time he's presented with a winning opportunity. But while Fisher has signalled his potential, there's little to suggest that last week will be anything other than a peak amongst a series of moderate, mid-division finishes. Which is what he was doing beforehand, as indeed are other prodigies such as Mcllroy and young Dutch Joost Luiten. I doubt it justifies the shortening of Fisher's odds from [150.0] last week to just [44.0] this time. In fact as they looked at least his equal beforehand, I'd much rather take the [55.0] about Luiten or better still, [70.0] about Mcllroy.

Its a convenient time to be discussing these youngsters because this week's Euro event, the Estoril Open, could represent one of their best opportunities to make the breakthrough. Last year's renewal was won by a 21 year-old, with Pablo Martin becoming the first amateur ever to land a European Tour title, matched at odds of over [500.0]. Martin wasn't the only novice on the leaderboard by any means, with David Griffiths, Martin Kaymer, Alexander Noren and Alejandro Canizares all in the thick of things. Then just 22, Charl Schwartzel was one of the most experienced amongst the contenders. Clearly the various nuances that exacerbate the weaknesses of inexperience are not much of an issue at Oitavos Dunes, so I'll be backing both Luiten and Mcllroy to break their duck this week.

Longer term though, we need to be wary about creating massive expectations for these players. Since Tiger Woods turned professional and started winning immediately, the bar of expectation surrounding virtually any top player under the age of 30 has been massively lifted. Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott and Luke Donald have all come in for heavy criticism for failing to break through in the Majors, yet prior to Woods barely anybody under 30 won Majors. Superstars of recent years such as Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Retief Goosen were all over that age when they won their first. When you consider all the precedents, the fact Mcllroy has been backed at lower than [3.0] to qualify for the Ryder Cup in his first season seems ridiculous.

In any case, so much can change in the decade from 20 to 30. For instance, consider the examples of Geoff Ogilvy and Sergio Garcia. As recently as five years ago, Ogilvy was merely one of the better players on the Australasian Tour, just emerging in the States but predicted by absolutely nobody to be anything better than a middle-ranking PGA Tour player. Even back then, it was four years since Sergio had arrived on the world scene, widely tipped as the next big thing and Tiger's great rival. Skip forward to 2008 and Garcia is without a Major, struggling to stay competitive. Alternatively the under-hyped Ogilvy has won a US Open, two World Golf Championships and heads to Augusta as one of the leading hopes.

So whatever flashes of brilliance, and there will be plenty, that we see from Mcllroy, Fisher and Luiten in the coming weeks, its worth reflecting on the fate of Pablo Martin in the year since his breakthrough. He's shown promise elsewhere, particularly to make the top-30 in the US Open but generally he's performed as he would have been expected to before that amazing week in Portugal. On reflection his odds of [500.0] weren't 'wrong', as he hasn't made a single top-20 since. Quite possibly in a few years time he'll be a regular contender, but for now he's merely a prospect. Like all the others of his age group, he'll remain wildly inconsistent. Worth keeping an eye on at big prices, but not one to trust implicitly especially when in contention at short odds.