General / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 June 2008 /

The golf world rankings tell a peculiar story - that no one is quite ready to challenge Tiger and Phil. Paul Krishnamurty considers the claims of the 'next best' in the game

You'd have to go back to the days of Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson to find the last time two players were so far ahead of the pack going into a US Open. We're used to viewing golf tournaments are a case of "Tiger versus The Rest", a point emphasised by his [3.1] odds to win next week's US Open. In fact if it wasn't for injury concerns he'd be a fair bit shorter. But as the world rankings list and betting suggest, Phil Mickelson now holds a huge advantage over the rest.

The clearest measure lies in the world rankings. At no.1 with a points average of 19.82, Woods is rated almost twice the player of Mickelson on 10.13. Gaps of this level were unthinkable before Woods arrived on the scene, and until now he'd been the only player ever to hold any sort of substantial lead over the next best. Mickelson now rates a full four points ahead of the third player though. Compare that differential to the single point that separates the next ten players. In the US Open betting, Mickelson's odds are a third of of the next best. I have never seen the third favourite start at odds over [30.0] in a major before.

Surely somebody is going to improve and jump out of the pack sooner or later. If we were talking about standard tour events, Adam Scott immediately springs to mind. Up to World no.3 as of yesterday, Scott seems to have made considerable progress this season, winning twice in emphatic fashion in Qatar and Texas. On a golf course with receptive greens, or perhaps just those that aren't brutal on or around the greens, the 27 year-old Australian has very few peers.

It's to Scott's detriment though that major championships are very rarely played on such courses. Its this weakness in his short-game that explains his dire record in the majors, with the US Open the clearest case. Scott has yet to make a top-20 in six attempts and can't really be taken seriously as a challenger to Woods and Mickelson until he shows dramatic improvement in the biggest events.

Still, at least Scott has a claim. I was astonished to discover when researching this article that Ernie Els was ranked at no.3. On the basis of his form this year, he'd struggle to make the top-30. Another missed cut at the Memorial means he's dropped down to no.4, but I suspect he'll be dropping down much further sometime soon. If he needs an illustration as to how quickly the mighty can fall, Ernie just needs to look at his friend, compatriot and former top-5 player Retief Goosen. In the last year, he's dropped down to no.33.

A measure of how wide open the race for no.3 has become lies in the case of Steve Stricker. Two years ago, Stricker re-emerged after years in the wilderness, making the most of a US Open invite to re-start a career everyone thought was over. After surprising with a high finish there, Stricker suddenly became a model of consistency and shot up to that no.3 spot. Imagine the hope this must have given to journeymen pros everywhere. If a guy outside the top-200 can rise that swiftly to No.3, so can anyone.

But assuming that there isn't another Stricker lurking at [1000.0] in the US Open betting about to go on the run of a lifetime, who else is well-placed to make the step up and give Woods and Mickelson a run for their money? Having answered his critics by winning at Sawgrass, Sergio Garcia is back in the picture. I know its become a cliche to say, but all Garcia has to do is learn to putt and he'll be there. Easier said than done, but no doubt with his long-game brilliance, Sergio is a serious contender both at Torrey Pines and in the British Open next month.

Having broken his majors duck at Carnoustie, the other obvious European candidate is Padraig Harrington, who certainly doesn't the lack the work-rate required to improve further. He's a difficult candidate to assess for next week. Pod certainly has the game and a decent US Open record, but hasn't set the world alight in regular tournaments lately. I've a strong suspicion this is because he's reconsidered his schedule and approach, with a view to being fresh and focused in the majors. Time will tell if this strategy prevails, but a top-five at Augusta was encouraging.

It may well be though that we are going through a transitional period. As top stars Els, Goosen and Vijay Singh have started to decline, the next generation of superstars are not quite ready. In the very long term, the name on everyone's lips is Rory Mcllroy, but for now I'll nominate two players, each a winner in 2008. Martin Kaymer strikes me as the best young prospect in Europe, Antony Kim the best in the States.

Both will be outsiders at Torrey Pines, but it won't be too long before both are in the world's top-10 and after that, the sky's the limit.

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