WGC World Cup Betting: England are favourites but are they value?

General / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ross Fisher and Ian Poulter lead the market as England at 6.2

"I like the chances of the second favourites, Northern Ireland, at [6.8]. In Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell, they have two players right at the top of my 'winners waiting to happen' list."

With Ross Fisher and Ian Poulter winning tournaments in the last month, England expects at this weekend's World Cup. However, punters should put patriotism aside and remember that great players do not always a great team make, says Paul Krishnamurty.

These are heady days for English golf, and not just because Lee Westwood won the inaugural Race to Dubai.

Lee's performance over the weekend appears to mark a new high in an already fine career, but he isn't our only serious hope for next year's majors by any means. Despite seeing a brilliant season ruined by injury, Paul Casey ranks just one place below Westwood at fifth in the world rankings, and for the first time in living memory, we can boast four out of the top-20.

The market points towards a further boost this week, with the other two members of the top-20, Ross Fisher and Ian Poulter, spearheading our World Cup bid as [6.2] favourites. With both players winners of big events during the past month, there's every reason for England to expect. Patriotism aside, however, punters must treat this like any other favourite and ask the perennial question. Is this a value bet?

The case for

Despite the prestigious title, golf's World Cup is hardly a contest between the world's best players. Of the 28 countries participating, at least a third are complete no-hopers. Many fail to attract their very best eligible players, so Ireland must do without Padraig Harrington while instead of Woods and Mickelson, the USA are represented by the ever so slightly less famous pairing of John Merrick and Nick Watney. Indeed, England themselves have picked only their third and fourth highest ranked players.

So while golf punters used to taking big odds might baulk at the [6.2] quote, it needs to be seen in the context of the opposition. Every pair outside the four market leaders, all of whom are quoted in single figures, are significantly inferior in individual terms, as measured by rankings. Of the 'big-4', both Sweden and Spain have big questions to answer about recent form.

Both players have solid form credentials, particularly Poulter, who has followed up on his recent Singapore Open victory with top-10s in Hong Kong and Dubai. Sunday's closing 65 particularly took the eye. And while Fisher failed to rise to the occasion in Dubai, it's only a few weeks since he became World Matchplay champion.

The case against

We've been here before. 12 months ago, this same English pairing started the event as joint-favourites before finishing sixth. Not a bad result in comparison to the field, but they were beaten by 12 shots and never looked like winning. They just couldn't keep pace with the very low scoring; Sweden won on -27; and again they will need to shoot plenty of birdies in every round.

There shouldn't be many worries about Poulter on that score, but I am slightly concerned about Fisher's record in China. Though twice making the top four in 11 events, he missed the top-25 on all the other nine. Could it be that, like so many Europeans, Ross hasn't quite mastered the different greens in this part of the world?

Furthermore, it is dangerous to make assumptions about team golf events based purely on the quality of the individuals concerned. The ability to gel as a team is equally important, and such qualities have helped many less glamourous pairings triumph in this event before. The last four winning pairings included lesser lights such as Marcel Siem, Marc Warren, Stephen Dodd and Bradley Dredge.

Finally and decisively for me, there are better value options. Amongst the other main candidates, I slightly prefer the chances of the second favourites, Northern Ireland at [6.8]. In Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell, they have two players right at the top of my 'winners waiting to happen' list. Critically, both have plenty of form in China.

The best value in my view, especially from a trading perspective, lies slightly further down the list. Once you've written off the no-hopers, and pairings carrying one inferior or badly out of form player, I'm confident the short-list for this title can be reduced to a maximum of 14 teams. As previous World Cups have seen, at least a couple of those currently trading in double-figures will shorten markedly. The two I like are Italy and Germany, both at around [18.5], and both of whom can boast strong form credentials.