US Seniors Open Betting: Struggling punters can again find respite with the seniors

General / Editor / 28 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

"The same big names line up at Crooked Stick, and this time their supremacy over the rest may be further accentuated. Scoring at Sunningdale was notable in so far as the field finished much more closely bunched than in previous Opens at links venues."

After another weekend of upsets, things are unlikely to get any easier for punters at the Moravia Silesia Open, says Paul Krishnamurty. Instead, we should look to Crooked Stick for value...

And so it continues. To the list of unfathomable 2009 champions, we can now add Ricardo Gonzalez and Nathan Green, respective winners of the weekend's events in Sweden and Canada. In the case of Green, a [360.00] chance pre-tournament, we were dealing with a player with only one previous top-20 to his name this season, and a long history of struggling to deal with pressure. Anyone regularly backing winners on the European and PGA Tours this season deserves the utmost credit.

Things don't get any easier in Europe this week, with a new tournament at a previously unseen venue; the Moravia Silesia Open. Thankfully, there may be some respite for punters in the form of the second seniors major in consecutive weeks, the US Seniors Open.

Last week, I argued in this column that these top seniors events represent greater betting value than the main tours, due to their lack of strength in depth. Though my main bet on favourite Bernhard Langer came up just short, a series of win and place bets on a few other leading candidates ensured it was a very profitable tournament. The final leaderboard at Sunningdale comprehensively proved my point. Of the 23 players to make the top-20 including ties, 15 came from the first 20 in the betting. Four of the top seven started at [25.0] or less.

All of the same big names line up at Crooked Stick, and this time their supremacy over the rest may be further accentuated. Scoring at Sunningdale was notable in so far as the field finished much more closely bunched than in previous Opens at links venues. In contrast, the tough conditions synomynous with any US Open tend to produce much greater separation between the leaders and the rest.

So long as the physical and emotional strain of playing majors in consecutive weeks on either side of the Atlantic doesn't take too much toll, its hard to see any of the top five at Sunningdale being too far away on Sunday. A case could be made for backing all five, but I'm prepared to eliminate play-off losers Fred Funk and Mark McNulty from my plans.

The remaining three - Bernhard Langer, Loren Roberts and Greg Norman - all represent solid trades at [7.5], [13.0] and [15.0] respectively. Last week's bet on Langer was a frustrating loser, because in a way he did still demonstrate that he is the man to beat in this grade. Considering he was struggling to make the cut at one stage, to finish fourth losing by just one shot was a remarkable achievement. It cannot be long before the German lands his first seniors major, and he looks certain to be there or thereabouts again on Sunday.

Likewise, Roberts' chance is obvious given his US Open record. The high point of his PGA Tour career came in this major back in 1994, when losing on the 23rd play-off hole to Ernie Els. As a senior, his record is 2nd, 3rd, 8th and 12th, suggesting he is well capable of pulling off a remarkable back-to-back majors double. Nobody is more reliable over those testy five-footers for par that characterise US Opens than the 'Boss of the Moss'.

If there's one senior who has absolutely no worries on the physical fitness side of this tough fortnight's test, its Greg Norman. It was only a matter of terrible luck that Greg never won the 'proper' US Open from countless good opportunities, and doubtless he would love to go one better as a senior. Greg finished fourth on both previous attempts in this seniors major, and his excellent weekend performance at Sunningdale confirms his form is good.