General / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 January 2008 /

But there are better bets than the Grand Slam. Paul Krishnamurty asseses Woods chances in 2008.

When I first started gambling on golf in the early 1990s, the idea of any one player winning all four Majors in the same year seemed completely implausible. Back then the favourite for Majors never started at less than 6/1, and it was widely accepted that because competitors in this sport were playing the course rather than individual opponents, the game would always be so competitive and no one player would be able to dominate.

Clearly by the end of the decade that assumption was beginning to wear thin after the emergence of Tiger Woods. He'd already achieved the 'impossible' by April 2001 when a second Masters victory meant he held all four Major titles simultaneously. Winning all four in the same calendar year, though, remains the most obvious career achievement for Tiger that remains unfulfilled or uncertain - that is assuming he will comfortably surpass Jack Nicklaus' all-time Majors record in years to come.

Given his form over the past 18 months, comparable to those 'peak' years of 2000/2001, Tiger's bid for the Slam will in my view be the golf story of 2008. The price on Tiger winning all four is dropping fast. Having been matched earlier at around 40, the odds have come down to the low 20s in recent days. Its very hard to argue with the logic of the gamble, but as I shall explain there may be a shrewder betting strategy available.

First though to the task in hand for Tiger. The key date when assessing Woods' form is July 2006 and his return to winning ways in the Open Championship at Hoylake, which followed a period when Tiger's form and focus had understandably been affected by his father's long illness and eventual death. Prior to that personal tragedy, he'd endured a couple of years of relative under-achievement (only of course by his exalted standards), as he worked through extensive swing changes.

From Hoylake onwards though, he's been back in the same sort of imperious form of 2000. He won his last seven US events in 2006, and added eight more from 17 US starts in 2007. Those fifteen victories included three Majors, four WGCs and the final two Fedex Cup play-off events. Statistically speaking, this means the correct price for Woods in any US tournament since then should be 1.62. So from this perspective odds of around 2.8 to win the opening Major of the year, the Masters at Augusta, look pretty generous.

And there is one further substantial reason why 2008 represents his best chance yet of the Grand Slam. Whereas his record in the Masters and USPGA are beyond comparison, the US and British Opens have usually proven harder to dominate. He has won these two Majors combined on five occasions, though all came on courses that were tailor-made for his power game - Pebble Beach, Bethpage Black, St Andrews and Hoylake. The good news for Woods is that the two Opens in 2008 will be played on courses he should relish at Torrey Pines and Birkdale.

The former particularly suits Tiger, as he has won four of the six runnings of the Buick Invitational there since it was significantly lengthened in preparation for this forthcoming Major date. Whatever happens in the meantime, I will be having one of my biggest bets of the year on Tiger at Torrey Pines, and expect to get at least 3.0. As for Birkdale, he will surely be confident of improving on 4th place there in 1998, when nowhere near the accomplished links exponent that he has since become. Again, the current odds above 3.5 for Woods' fourth British Open favour the backer rather than the layer in my view.

But while the Slam is a massive possibility, I can't help but conclude that a better bet is to back Woods to win 'exactly three Majors' in the 'Tiger Specials' section at 14 rather than to win all four at 24. All the value appears to have gone from the latter price, as a running accumulator on each Major would pay much more than 24. He is currently 2.8 for the Masters and I would estimate will start at least 3.0 for the US and British Opens. At these odds, a treble would pay the equivalent odds as the Slam without having to fret about the final leg, the USPGA.

Alternatively, backing him to win exactly three creates options. If he slips up at Augusta, the bet would still be running, starting with my strongest fancy in the US Open. And if he wins the first three or two from three, it would be straightforward to have the necessary saver on the final Major in order to bank a substantial profit.

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