General / Craig Dutton / 15 October 2007 /

McIlroy's got the smarts but his Portugal Masters price is way too skinny, says Betfair blogger Craig Dutton

If I had a hat, I would take it off. I have got two thumbs, and both of them are up. In only his third professional start, Rory McIlroy tied fourth in the Madrid Open.

Following on from his great showing in the Dunhill Links, McIlroy produced a wonder third round, carding a 66 to rocket up the table. I was busy positioning my foot with the sole intention of shoving it into my mouth as the tournament progressed after blogging about McIlroy's progress last week.

In my opinion, and luckily I can still say that this week, we should hold off backing McIlroy if value is what we're searching for when punting (and of course it should be). Understandably, his price was shortened by his previous performance. As I dribbled on about last week, current form is just too expensive, and too unproductive to follow. How many times does a player card nine birdies, and then stumble around the course the following day as though he/she replaced breakfast with a pint?

Having secured his Tour card for next season, an element of Rory's outlook will be relaxed as he has achieved his objective. As optimistic as I'm sure he is, he could have not wished for a better couple of months. He will now go the Portugal Masters, an event with fair depth in competition: Rose, Goosen, Westwood, Lawrie, Jimenez. Despite that opposition, Rory trades at 16. To me, that offers no value at all. Were he to shoot an awful couple of rounds, miss the cut, then bomb his next couple of tournaments, you could at least double that 16. That's the time to get on.

I still maintain that a golfer doesn't lose his ability due to a poor run of form. Look at Cabrera in the Match Play - he really has had a poor run in the past six months, and he waded through to the final in style.

Leave Rory alone. If he picks up a tournament, we'll be happy for him. For our punting purposes, it's better that he doesn't.

***

Just a little about Cabrera, clearly a great golfer. As you may know, we used to have something going on. And as years of romantic comedies have taught me, love never dies. Els is a class apart around Wentworth, but Cabrera proved far too strong for Casey and Mahan in the rounds.

After his victory in the US Open, it was downhill all the way. Whether he couldn't be bothered anymore, or he had achieved his goals, who knows. Either way, the man is a great golfer. If he had the desire, the concentration, and the luck, he could easily pick up another Major in 2008.

He will never go down in the history books as an all-time great. Whenever he's playing, always look at him as a threat. Perhaps the embers of love still burn within my wallet. I'm not sure.

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