General / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 June 2008 / 1

Paul Krishnamurty considers the claims of the brilliant young German for Woods' crown. The shadow of Sergio looms large over Kaymer but this kid looks the real deal

After a week which started with arguably the finest ever golfing achievement only to be followed by the sad news that Tiger Woods will not play again this year, the golf betting community must quickly come to terms with a very different reality.

Those layers whose tournament betting strategy is centred around getting against Tiger blindly at short prices will now have to think again. The favourite for next month's Open Championship is currently trading at [16.0], the biggest priced favourite in Open, and I'm pretty sure the history of the majors. Woods' announcement also saw carnage in the long-term markets with the Ryder Cup betting particularly affected, Europe are now the shortest price they've ever been to win the Ryder Cup away from home, at a paltry [2.04].

On a deeper level though, Tiger has shown us his mortality. Everyone hopes and expects him to return and accumulate more major titles, but he isn't going to be dominant forever. Its certainly legitimate to wonder if he will still be World no.1 in five years time. And besides perhaps Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott, few of Woods' current principal rivals are likely to dramatically improve or remain at their peak for that much longer.

So who will be the one who finally knocks Tiger off his pedestal? The field for that honour is wide-open, but rather than looking towards his immediate current rivals, who have rarely looked up to the job, my view is that it will be someone from the next generation, yet to arrive on the biggest stage. There's plenty of potential across the Atlantic, particularly Antony Kim, while Rory Mcllroy and Oliver Fisher carry much British hope.

But its increasingly my view that the next World no. 1 is a current European Tour regular, in line for a Ryder Cup place though not yet a household name. Even accounting for over-reaction to his second victory of the season last weekend, Martin Kaymer is the most exciting European talent to emerge this century.

Its important to remember how inexperienced 23 year-old Kaymer is. This is only his third season as a professional, the first strolling through the Challenge Tour with just a few events. He stood out as the best rookie last year, doing everything but win, which prompted me to flag him up as one of the players to follow in 2008 last November.

In the 20 years I've been watching golf, the only players to have made a quicker impact in the pro-ranks were Tiger, Ernie Els and Sergio Garcia. Compare Kaymer's swift progress in 18 months on the main tour to the other top Euro prospects. Justin Rose has been professional for a decade, Henrik Stenson is in his ninth Euro Tour season, Paul Casey his eighth. The young German already looks up to their level, and is improving fast.

Garcia's stalled progress is perhaps a warning to guard against early hype - the Spaniard isn't a markedly better player than the one who so nearly hunted Tiger down at Valhalla in his first few months as a pro. But there's no doubt watching Kaymer that there are bags of improvement to come, particularly in terms of course management and putting - weaknesses to be expected in young, inexperienced players.

If he's good enough now to win multiple top-class events, imagine how good he'll be once he's ironed out those flaws and is saving a shot or two with each round. And I like his temperament too, leading all the way for his maiden victory in Abu Dhabi and from halfway last week in Germany. He certainly wobbled on Sunday, but his recovery after that catastrophic triple-bogey took some courage.

The market has certainly reacted to Kaymer's progress. Matched at a high of [5.0] in the early exchanges to qualify for the Ryder Cup, the latest price matched was [1.5]. He's also down to a very skinny looking [60.0] to win the Open at his first attempt next month, which is surely a step too far whatever potential he has.

A more interesting, realistic market is the Order of Merit, where he is now up to seventh place. As I pointed out a few weeks ago when adding a small bet on Kaymer at 34.0 to my generally disappointing portfolio in this market, there is much still to play for in the money list.

Current leader Miguel-Angel Jiminez is nowhere near the required winning tally and anyone going on a good run in the lucrative summer events could quickly overtake him. After Sunday's win, Kaymer's odds have shortened to [13.0].

If he maintains his scintillating form for a second week in the French Open, expect Kaymer's odds in all of those various markets to tumble further. Only recent US Open contenders Lee Westwood and Robert Karlsson are a shorter price than Kaymer in France, on a course where he went close last year. Its probably asking too much to expect someone so inexperience to win back-to-back, but if not this week I will certainly be keeping this brilliant young German on side in the months and years ahead.

* Is Paul right? Is Kaymer the best prospect out there? Who else do you think has the potential to claim Tiger's crown in the long-term?

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1. Fredrik Gyllensten | 24 June 2008

   I feel confident that Tiger will continue to be the world nr. 1 in the next 10 years.

   And I think Anthony Kim is a better 'candidate' to put some pressure on Tiger.

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