General / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 July 2011 /

Rory McIlroy has been over-hyped and under-priced since he won the US Open. However, on home soil this weekend, he's the man to back, says Paul Krishnamurty.

Expect a jubilant atmosphere this week at Killarney as the Irish golfing public celebrates its new superpower status by welcoming home all four recent major champions. Open winner Darren Clarke will doubtless receive a rapturous reception, while triple major-champ Padraig Harrington is always the crowd favourite in his national Open. Graeme McDowell will also have plenty of followers, but so far as the betting is concerned, one man dominates proceedings. As is increasingly the norm, Rory McIlroy stands apart from the rest at just [6.6].

Since the advent of Betfair, the principal focus of golf markets has been around one man, Tiger Woods. Whenever Woods played, liquidity was up. His presence or form going into a major had a significant direct effect on everyone else's price. So long as he remained vaguely in contention for any tournament he played, there would be more activity in his price than any other.

Nobody has properly managed to fill the void left by Tiger's demise, but it increasingly looks like Rory is the man to do it. In addition to being a fantastic player, with a great chance everytime he tees it up, McIlroy is a player punters seem to love. During the Open, even when he was six or seven shots behind, more was being traded on Rory than numerous others much closer to the lead. So whereas the first essential trading move used to be evaluating Tiger's odds, now we must decide in each event whether Rory represents value or not.

Broadly speaking, I remain of the view expressed last month following his US Open stroll, that it is unrealistic to expect McIlroy or anyone else to emulate Woods. Much - even most - of the time, Rory's popularity will ensure he's poor value. The market response to the US Open victory was way over the top, shortening him to around [7.0] for the Open, despite a known aversion to the windy conditions that prevailed at Royal St George's. Likewise, [10.5] for next month's USPGA is hardly a price to get excited about.

This week's test, however, is nowhere near as competitive. The only other members of the world's top-50 in this line-up are Gmac and Clarke, and the latter was ranked much lower until the Open. It strikes me that if you were prepared to back him in the majors at single figures, [6.6] is too big to ignore in this markedly weaker company, with massive home support. He will certainly be taking this event as seriously.

Moreover, I think Killarney Golf and Fishing Club will be right up his street. This is a 'second shot course', with a stack of birdies available to the best iron players, and there is nobody better than McIlroy in that department. Last year's renewal saw Ross Fisher and Padraig Harrington produce some scintillating approach play at the head of affairs, and apart from the leading half dozen in this year's betting, it's hard to identify many others with sufficient class. Admittedly, there was no hint of him liking the layout when finishing 35th last year, although he was in contention until halfway before a terrible weekend.

In any case, that result is probably of limited relevance because he's improved so much in the meantime. McIlroy has become much more adept at combining four good rounds, and less likely to ruin his chance during a bad couple of hours. Indeed, while he was the first to admit he hasn't yet got the game for a bad-weather Open, his performance in finishing 25th was much more solid than when previously faced with such unsuitable conditions. In just the few months since the Masters, he's become a better putter, and plays at a more sensible pace. Critically, the weather forecast is much better this time.

Such evaluation of course, field and weather conditions will be the key to winning on golf's new superstar in the years ahead. Even Tiger had courses that he didn't like and where he was always worth opposing - narrow par-70s for instance, or Riviera. Therefore, the key was to avoid those events, and save cash for courses like Firestone, Augusta, Bay Hill, Torrey Pines or St Andrews, where Woods was ultra-reliable. So far as Rory is concerned, I'd also be very wary of narrow, short layouts and he makes absolutely no appeal in the wind. Instead, I reckon if we stick to courses with wide fairways or a lack of penal rough, like the Gulf Swing, Augusta or indeed, Killarney Golf and Fishing Club, McIlroy will be a reliable betting proposition, even at single figures.

Recommended Bet
Irish Open - Back Rory McIlroy @ [6.6]

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