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Has the fat lady sung for Vijay?

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Craig Dutton considers the recent career of the fading Fijian...

Thursday Jaunary 4th

Just as sure as milk becomes custard if you leave it out of the fridge, the advent of a new golf tournament inevitably leads to me the back of the Racing Post, where Jeremy Chapman's overview of the upcoming event can be found.

I'd like to think I'm no mug punter, but I know my limitations. Despite what your (and my own) ego likes to think, a lot of people know a lot more about golf than you do, an essential lesson for any trader. Egotism and stubbornness to look sense and facts in the face leads your mouse to the deposit icon like nothing else. To begin with, I will always take into consideration what a dedicated follower of the sport such as Chapman has to say.

In this case, I think he is absolutely wrong. His main tip for the Mercedes Benz Championship is Vijay Singh - and he certainly has a case for the defence. His course form is untouchable - figures of 12524384 at the Hawaiian course are incredibly impressive. And aside from that, he is playing in a field devoid of any mega-stars.

But then there is the downside. Singh was really dismal last season, gradually getting worse and worse after starting well with two victories on the colder side of March. Perhaps his game perked up towards Christmas, but not tremendously. When I came to look at the field, his name was one of the first to be scratched. His putting game has never looked shoddier, and for a professional whose consistency has kept him his position in the upper echelon of the game, it seems Singh had rewarded that very consistency with a 12-month vacation to Biarritz.

Singh himself readily admitted to a poor year by his lofty standards, which it was, and changed his swing in the summer to try and bring about improvement, and more fade, a ploy that looked to have beared tasty, lucrative fruit (papaya?) in October with a win on the Asian Tour in October. It may be that he is still taking time to adjust - changing a golf swing requires more than an overnight bag, as Woods found out changing his swing five or so years ago. But Singh, in all recent tournaments, has not shown enough to merit serious interest at a single figure price, no matter how bare the field. If he wins, I'll just take the "looks stupid now" angle.

Monday January 7th

Well, for once, I can walk away without egg on my face. From what I saw, it was Vijay's putting that was a real difference - he could barely putt this week. There's no doubt he isn't firing on all cylinders, the question is how many cylinders has he left?

It's so hard for this not to sound like an ego trip - "I'm so much better than you, I KNEW Vijay wasn't going to win". That isn't the idea. In truth, I didn't know anything. I just thought that. Chapman and other tipsters of his ilk know more about golf - have forgotten more about the golf scene than I will ever know. And their opinions hold a lot more weight for the general punter than mine. But for any tipster - all they can provide is opinion - undoubtedly a far more considered one than my own. But that is why no-one has a 100% strike-rate - it is why Chapman is employed, and not sunning himself in Tahiti with his piles of profit.

The lesson is this: We can never rely fully on anyone else to tell us who to back or who to lay, because nothing is cut and dried, and never will be. Following anyone's selection blind is pure stupidity, because no-one is the Messiah. If we do, regardless of the outcome, we have no-one to blame but ourselves.