Golf Betting: Who's got the 'bottle' when the win is in sight?

General / Paul Krishnamurty / 31 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Francesco Molinari misses a crucial putt at Gleneagles - a scene repeated at plenty of golf courses over the years

"For all his brilliance, Rory McIlroy has just two titles to his names. One came in Dubai, when he nearly blew a big lead down the stretch. The other at Quail Hollow came from off the pace, so he never truly faced the pressure of knowing what to do in order to claim victory."

Paul Krishnamurty selects the players to back and avoid when the chance of a win arises

If ever one needed an illustration of the importance of 'bottle', Sunday's pulsating conclusion to the European Ryder Cup race at Gleneagles provided it. As he unveiled his picks afterwards, Captain Monty said Edoardo Molinari's triple-birdie finish under such extreme pressure was the best he'd seen in his quarter-century on the European Tour. It is hard to disagree. From the moment Edoardo stepped up from the Challenge Tour last autumn, he has looked every inch a winner, and that competitive streak makes him a key team member at Celtic Manor. On a personal note, it was nice to see another of my 'Five to Follow in 2010' picks vindicated, following Martin Kaymer's ascent to major champion status.

For every Edoardo, however, there's another player driving his supporters to despair thanks to an inability to close the deal. Here are six players; two winners, two losers and another couple of big-names for whom the jury remains out, but whose supporters are running short of patience.

Winners

Miguel-Angel Jimenez
It may seem inappropriate to define Jimenez as a winner after his poor finish on Sunday, but his longer-term record means we should move on quickly without asking too many questions about that double-bogey at 17. Overall, his final round performance was admirable in difficult conditions. Even more so considering he'd never played Gleneagles and cancelled a trip to his nephew's wedding at the last minute to play. One of the most prolific members of the European side, Jimenez has won more titles in 2010 than Woods and Mickelson combined.

Brett Rumford
Great sympathy is due to Rumford, who could only watch from the clubhouse as his stiff target was caught, then overhauled, by Molinari. We could just as easily have been discussing Brett's superb birdie-birdie finish now, when he once again raised his game under pressure. While lacking the consistency to rapidly climb the rankings, Rumford is a proven winner with a good conversion ratio. Interestingly one of his three European Tour titles, all of which came at big odds, was in this week's tournament, the Omega European Masters. He should rate a popular pick at around [40.0].


Bottlers

Francesco Molinari
Another thing learned from Sunday's experience was that bottle has nothing to do with genetics, as the younger Molinari brother could not be more different in this regard. Every time he took the lead, he quickly took another step back. This wasn't an isolated incident by any means, as it seems to happen almost every week to Francesco. He may well be remarkably consistent, but it is over four years since his sole tournament victory.

Jeff Overton
Similarly, it would be disingenuous to put all of Overton's near-misses down to bad luck. Sure, one can sympathise being overhauled by a player hitting 59 on the final day, as happened at the Greenbrier Classic, but Overton didn't help himself either. As Steven Rawlings pointed out the following day in his de-brief, Overton's attitude and mannerisms bore the hallmarks of a bottler.


On Trial

Rory McIlroy
I'm not about to hold myself up for potentially never-ending ridicule by labelling the world's best prospect as a bottler just yet, but he is yet unproven in this respect. For all his brilliance, Rory has just two titles to his names. One came in Dubai, when he nearly blew a big lead down the stretch. The other at Quail Hollow came from off the pace, so he never truly faced the pressure of knowing what to do in order to claim victory. On the most recent evidence of the USPGA, Rory's long game held up beautifully under final day pressure, but the putting needs improvement.

Dustin Johnson
I am backing Dustin this week on what looks his ideal layout at the Deutsche Bank Championship at [23.0], but this could be last chance saloon. His final day collapse at the US Open was forgiveable, being the first time he'd held such a position. Dustin also got sympathy at the USPGA after that cruel two-shot penalty, which rather overlooks the 72nd hole bogey or generally erratic final round. He wasn't convincing on Sunday at the Barclays either. Nevertheless, as a twice champion at Pebble Beach, front-running on both occasions, he's in the clear... for now.