Betfair Official Blog

Golf Betting: Where have all the challengers gone?

Click here to view market

Paul Krishnamurty on the demise of the chasing pack among golf's elite

Ever since Tiger emerged in 1997, his most prominent rivals have been regularly accused by commentators of lacking the stomach for the challenge. I've always felt that charge was grossly unfair, and that they would have won many more majors and been established as all-time greats had they not been unfortunate enough to peak at the same time as this once in a lifetime phenomenon. However, I'm pretty sure Woods has never entered a season with quite the same level of unquestioned dominance as 2008. The 'bottle' of the challengers is not really the issue, rather that none of the big names are producing anywhere near their best at the moment.

With Woods rendering most of the recent and forthcoming big events no-contests, his three week break from PGA Tour action offered a golden opportunity to register a desperately needed victory ahead of the Masters. Instead the first two of those three events have gone to outsiders JB Holmes and Steve Lowery, both stealing the top prize from under the noses of Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh respectively.

Mickelson in particular couldn't have asked for better opportunities than Tiger-free events at Scottsdale and Pebble Beach, courses on which he'd already won five times. In fairness to Phil, he didn't do a lot wrong at Scottsdale and must have been sick to the stomach when JB Holmes birdied the final hole and the first play-off to deny him a first win of 2008. His missed cut at last week's pro-am was much more disappointing, though Lefty backers must always know they're taking a risk that he'll throw in a random poor effort.

Sunday's defeat was probably more of a blow to Vijay, especially having traded as short as [1.08]. Singh has been a mainstay near the top of the money list for the past decade, but desperately needs a win to dispel a growing feeling that he's in decline approaching his 45th birthday. With chances to win few and far between nowadays, he has his work cut out avoiding a first blank year since 2001 and could even struggle to ever gain a 32nd PGA Tour victory.

At least Mickelson and Singh are knocking on the door. The likes of Sergio Garcia and Retief Goosen would be over the moon just to make a top-10 these days. Ernie Els can hardly be expected to win the big Stateside events when he can't even win in South Africa or India. Even the ultra-reliable Jim Furyk has started the season poorly by his own standards. No disrespect whatsoever to a resurgent Steve Stricker, but the fact that he is up to No.3 in the world at this stage in his career says as much about the chasing pack as it does about him.

Nevertheless, this week's event at Riviera represents one last chance before Tiger returns to action at the World Matchplay. A win here would carry much weight against a field including eight of the world's top-10 and 17 of the top-20.

A look through the betting though illustrates the lack of confidence in so many of the 'usual suspects'. Mickelson, despite snatching defeat from the jaws of victory here last year, is in double figures and only Adam Scott is also under [20.0]. The real eye-opening odds though are the likes of Goosen at [90.0], Geoff Ogilvy and Paul Casey at [130.0]. Not because they represent value, but because it has been so long since they looked threatening that layers can't seem to get them at any price.

It seems we're going through a transitional phase where the next generation are preparing to take over from the old guard. Consider the number of players in their twenties who are capable, if not yet quite ready, to step up to elite level. Garcia certainly has the talent, if not necessarily the temperament or putting stroke. Adam Scott too will get better rewards for his long game if he can improve on and around the greens. Henrik Stenson and Aaron Baddeley have made great strides lately and have bags of improvement to come. Equally the likes of Ogilvy and Casey are capable of reversing their current woes and improving for the experience. Its important to remember that, excluding Tiger, most players peak in their thirties.

They'll have to get a move on though or risk being eclipsed by an even younger generation. As I scoured the updated world rankings today, one move particularly took the eye. Already, in just his second season on the European Tour, German prodigy Martin Kaymer is up to No.21.