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Golf betting strategy: when is the best time to lay the favourite?

Paul Krishnamurty has some in-play betting tips to improve your punting...

To anyone who had only recently started playing the golf in-running markets, it would be very possible to conclude that laying odds-on favourites is the easiest game in the world.

To recap the events of the last month, first the Volvo Masters saw Justin Rose finally triumph in a three-way play-off after all three had traded at short odds-on over the closing holes. Then the new season continued in the same vein with Ross Fisher managing to blow his chance against Phil Mickelson in Shanghai despite being as short as [1.04] on the final hole - this after Mickelson had also appeared to have blown a certain winning position. These final hole catastrophes nearly let in Lee Westwood, who had traded at [1000.0] on the final day before going down in the subsequent play-off.

Things have since continued in the same vein. Robert Karlsson hit [1.1] before losing in Hong Kong, as did the USA in the World Cup on Sunday morning. And in Australia, three players traded odds-on over the closing holes at Huntingdale. The obvious conclusion must be that Christmas has come early for those with a taste for laying odds-on favourites.

Rest assured, it isn't always that easy otherwise we'd all be doing nothing else. In fact, analysis of every European and PGA Tour tournament from the 2006 season suggests that anyone planning on blindly laying odds-on favourites in golf will soon learn an expensive mistake. Of 81 events, more than one player traded at below [1.5] in only 26 tournaments. Therefore, for instance, adopting a strategy of laying the field to lose 1 notional point at [1.5] (I use this example as it amounts to an even money bet if two are matched), would have produced a net loss of 25 points. Repeating the experiment for a range of lower figures - [1.33], [1.2], [1.1] and [1.05] - yields even worse results.

As ever with trading, timing and discipline are the keys to success, so here are three useful strategies to consider when weighing up the pros and cons of whether to lay the favourite. First, a simple golden rule that applies to betting in general rather than just golf. As far as possible, set yourself a consistent staking plan. That doesn't mean every stake has to be the same, rather that they should be within certain reasonable limits. Just because you made £1000 after risking £100 laying Ross Fisher, that doesn't mean you should risk £500 on the next short-lay.

Secondly, try and set pre-determined target prices to lay at, and stick to them. I have certain targets at different stages of an event where the favourite must be considered for laying. For instance, anyone below [3.0] before the end of the first round, sub [2.2] before the end of R2 and sub [1.8] before the end of R3. I also think that once the leader has been laid, its worth immediately deciding on a price at which to trade out banking a profit. This is harder to be exact about though as each scenario is so different, but again the key is decide early and stick to it.

Finally, and most importantly, know the course, and know the holes. Some courses are great for 'catch-up' golf, some great for front-runners. Historical trends are invaluable here, as there are usually convincing reasons behind them such as tricky or generous weekend pin positions or either an abundance or shortage of risk/reward holes. Laying the leader at Augusta is a very risky affair, a course at which, prior to Zach Johnson this year, the winner had come from the final two-ball for 16 consecutive years. Alternatively, the history of Carnoustie pointed to final day betting carnage in this year's Open which Garcia, Harrington and Romero duly went on to deliver.

Furthermore, its crucial to know when the easiest and hardest holes are. Laying the favourite just as they're teeing up on a reachable par-five is usually not a sensible move. Far better to wait until the leader is about to play a tough stretch. Though obviously using the benefit of hindsight, Sunday's dramatic Mastercard Masters finale could easily have been predicted. Not only does Huntingdale have some history of late turnarounds, but a tough stretch of closing holes culminating in the hardest hole on the course. Awareness of this may have enabled punters who backed both Stuart Appleby and Daniel Chopra at odds-on before they'd played the 18th to save a few quid.