Golf Betting: Return to links is relief for punters

General / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Ernie Els [19.0] is arguably the finest links exponent of his generation. Ross Fisher has looked a winner in waiting all season."

Is this the golf season of our discontent? Paul Krishnamurty thinks so but his enthusiasm for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is undiminished...

I'm getting a bit sick of writing this, but golf punters really have never had it so bad as this 2009 season, especially on the European Tour. The latest winner on this side of the Atlantic, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, was yet another [1000.00] shocker in this unbelievable year, having shot 60 in the final round to come from eight back, thus destroying many an in-running book as well as all those pre-tournament bets.

Luckily, I was on holiday and missed it, as I suspect it may have tipped me over the edge. It wasn't so much that Cabrera-Bello was an unknown or no-hoper; I actually tipped him in the Find Me a 100 Winner column earlier in the season; rather it was that the Spaniard had completely lost his form in recent weeks.

That's all history now, and fresh from that holiday, my confidence is restored. It also helps that this week sees one of my favourite tournaments of the year; the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Three reasons lie behind my confidence about betting on this event, which is played on three of Scotland's finest tracks in Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews.

Firstly, as a links tournament there are very clear trends. Just as in the Open, this form of golf markedly favours certain specialists, and many of the same names appear on the leaderboard year in, year out. Secondly, the forecast strong winds and rain will equally favour certain players and reduce the likelihood of a shock winner shooting a low score on the basis of a golden week with the putter. Thirdly, because this is a pro-am, many players struggle to retain their focus during very long rounds in a relaxed atmosphere alongside celebrities.

There are some interesting outsiders with decent links credentials, (Jamie Donaldson for instance is advised in this week's 100 Winner column), but the top five in the betting do look very strong. Nobody more so than [10.0] favourite Padraig Harrington, who has recently looked a winner waiting to happen against stronger fields in the States. Harrington's last six starts, all in Fedex Cup, WGC events or majors, have all yielded top-10 finishes and bar literally a handful of disastrous holes, the Irishman would have won a couple of titles.

There is no event in the calendar where Harrington holds a stronger claim than the Dunhill Links, which he has won twice and registered another couple of top-fives. Despite the short price about a player without a 2009 title, he must make any staking plan.

Of the next four in the betting, a strong case could be made for any one of Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Ernie Els and Ross Fisher. McIlroy has been on everyone's shortlist for this event since finishing third here in one of his earliest professional outings, but it's a slight concern that he hasn't yet produced his very best in bad weather. Perhaps it's down to his high ball-flight, or perhaps it's just a matter of time.

It certainly wouldn't be a surprise if Rory landed his second professional title; nor if Westwood were to end a bizarre two year run without a win. Lee landed this title, back in 2003 and has made the top-10 in five of the last seven Dunhill Links.

Nevertheless, at the slightly higher mark of [19.0], preference is for Els and Fisher. It seems incredible that Ernie has yet to win this event, as he is arguably the finest links exponent of his generation. His record in the Open is second to none, and it isn't bad in this event either; making the top-7 in five of his six completed attempts. Furthermore, Els has looked close to his best again recently in the States, putting up strong challenges for the PGA and the Barclays Classic.

Finally, this looks another golden opportunity for Fisher; another player who has looked a winner in waiting all season. Ross lost in a play-off here last year, and has clearly improved in the 12 months since. A strong challenge in the Open confirmed his links credentials, and he has shown in the past that his game is ideally suited to windy conditions. Indeed, even including all this year's fine efforts in elite events, Fisher's best performance to date came when spreadeagling a class field in very windy conditions at the 2008 European Open.