Golf Betting: Mickelson faces tough fight to fend off younger rivals

General / Paul Krishnamurty / 27 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Lefty has failed to take advantage of Tiger's absence and, after a miserable six months, now finds himself further adrift in the rankings than he was this time last year. Paul Krishnamurty wonders if the emergence of a plethora of young talent be about to make things worse...

Phil Mickelson begins his 2009 campaign this week, with his career at something of a crossroads. Less than a year ago, Mickelson was firmly established as the clear World No.2, a long way behind Tiger Woods but well clear of the rest. Much has changed on both sides of that equation in the meantime.

On the one hand, with Tiger injured and by no means certain to resume dominance upon his return, Mickelson is presented with the best chance he's ever had to take over as top dog. A series of big wins could elevate him to the No.1 spot, especially if Woods doesn't immediately return to his peak. If he could establish some early season form, the current quote of [12.5] for a third Masters title would look very tasty.

This, however, is by no means certain after a disappointing second half of 2008 that saw Mickelson slip to No.4, overtaken by Sergio Garcia and Padraig Harrington in the rankings. He hasn't won anywhere since May, and never really looked anywhere near his best during the summer. Even in his country's Ryder Cup victory, Mickelson was overshadowed by his team-mates.

At the age of 38, he must swiftly find his best form again or risk being overtaken by an increasing number of brilliant young rivals. Not least his 24-year-old compatriot Antony Kim and colourful 26 year-old Colombian Camilo Villegas, who have won three PGA titles between them since Mickelson's last. Not only do this pair have the talent to win everything the game has to offer, but both already rival Lefty in the showman stakes. When one also considers the plethora of young talent emerging in Europe, Mickelson could very quickly join his old rivals Ernie Els and Retief Goosen in the has-been stakes. That is almost certainly a very premature assumption, but as their demise shows, things can change very quickly at the top of this game.

For now, layers maintain their respect. Both those young rivals are amongst the opposition at Scottsdale, yet Lefty starts clear favourite at [10.5], as opposed to [14.0] and [19.5] about Kim and Villegas respectively. Undoubtably, that is due in no small part to Mickelson's stellar record at this venue, in either the FBR Open or its predecessor, the Phoenix Open. Lefty won the second of two Scottsdale titles in 2005, finished runner-up last year and has made the top-10 in five of his last six visits to the course. With its huge crowds and legendary raucous atmosphere, this stadium course is made for Mickelson. Ever the entertainer, he particularly seems to revel in the drama and noise surrounding the signature par three 16th hole.

Any bet at these, frankly pretty short, odds assumes that he is well-prepared for this first start of the season. Mickelson has always been famed for valuing his long winter break, and while a player of his exceptional talent shouldn't take too long finding the right groove, any rust in his game would surely be fatal against a field who've been back playing competitive golf for at least a fortnight. He's overcome this supposed disadvantage before, winning his first event of the 2002 and 2004 seasons, in both cases the 90-hole Bob Hope Classic. But in the last four years he's failed to challenge on his seasonal debut.

As far as this week's betting is concerned, the decision is easy. I've never liked backing Mickelson, even when in peak form. He's too unreliable, too dodgy under pressure, too prone to making ridiculous shot choices. I'm still smarting from the 2006 US Open defeat when he threw the tournament away on the closing holes having traded at [1.05]. But even without all that history, I couldn't take just [10.5] this week. Not when [19.5] is available about Villegas. Camilo is another character who seems ideally suited to the special atmosphere of Scottsdale. He brought this massive crowd to its feet when finishing second on his course debut back in 2006, and went down into the notebook as a likely future winner. Having vastly improved with experience in the meantime, this could be his year.