General / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 March 2008 /

With such large fields it's a tempting move, but when should you press the button and when should you not? Paul Krishnamurty explains more...

I doubt there is a more common discussion amongst Betfairians than which heavily odds-on chances have been recently turned over. Though winners are often matched at massive odds in-running, we're inclined to wonder how on earth we could have picked them. Just look at Arjun Atwal on Sunday. Yes, he was matched at [180.0] but then he started the round seven shots behind. Not a likely winner then, and only one of a dozen potential shock winners to pick from.

Alternatively, laying an odds-on chance is easy. It takes little thought, and rather than having to pick out the lucky beneficiary of a turnaround, you get on side with the entire chasing pack. Usually it takes just one bad shot to be able to 'green up'.

And on several occasions so far in 2008, odds-on layers have had a field day. At the weekend, three different players traded at [1.5] or lower in Malaysia. Three were also matched at odds-on a week earlier in India. In Florida Stewart Cink, trading below [1.3] before falling apart on Sunday's back nine, became the latest big name to suffer such a catastrophe, following final-round misery for Els, Singh, Mickelson and Leonard.

But if blindly laying odds-on chances has paid off lately, in the long run a more subtle approach is required to stay in front. It isn't always like this, nor is it random. There are factors that any serious golf trader must be aware of, and can prosper by following.

Obviously the player concerned has to be assessed on their merits before anything else. Nobody who's watched Cink over the years will have been surprised to see his latest debacle, even more so in the case of Malaysian Open [1.24] failure Peter Hedblom. Similarly the previous week's drama had centred around a player ranked outside the world's top-400 and a European Tour maiden. On the other hand, anyone who blindly lays Tiger Woods at odds-on should be locked up for their own safety.

Of equal importance is the nature of the course. There are courses that lend themselves to 'catch-up' golf, and there are courses that regularly favour the front-runners. These last two Asian venues have fitted the first category. Both had numerous pivotal 'risk-reward' holes, usually involving water, creating the potential for quick three or four shot swings. Both were low scoring events too, meaning the final day leader couldn't go out and play safe as he has to guard against one of the chasers shooting a final day 62. Making pars is one thing when the pressure's on, making birdies quite another.

Others may be less suited to catch-up, while still offering great potential for drama at the finish. At TPC Sawgrass, for instance, water is very much in play on the final three holes, each of which is well capable of producing a four-shot swing.

And then there are some extremely famous courses where it seems almost impossible to win from off the pace on the final day. Three of the last four Opens at St Andrews have produced one-sided, all-the-way wins for the favourite, and in seven years of the Dunhill Links Championship every winner bar one played in the final two-ball.

Augusta has proved even more predictable. Prior to last year, the previous 16 Masters winners had played in the final group. At both venues, tough final-day pin positions offer some explanation, as does the fact that most of the birdies are made on a comparitively small section of holes. Furthermore, the closing holes rarely throw up swings of more than a shot or two - particularly the 18th at St Andrews.

So what about this week? Will it pay to take on the favourite on Sunday? As far as the European Tour event in Korea is concerned, we can do no more than guess about a brand new course on the schedule. In stark contrast, Bay Hill is celebrating its 30th consecutive year on the PGA Tour. Of the three types of course mentioned above, Bay Hill would rate in the same category as Sawgrass. The stats there suggest catch-up golf is tough, but a brutal finishing stretch ensures regular final day betting drama. The last two holes are the hardest on the course, with the 18th involving a fearsome long approach shot over water.

Last year Vijay Singh came from three behind on Sunday, proving that catch-up is possible. Odds-on layers will have come a cropper though, as Vijay had it sewn up a long way out. However, the previous three years would have paid dividends. 2004 and 2005 saw Stuart Appleby and Singh trade at odds-on before finding a watery grave. But it was 2006 that saw the greatest carnage on the exchange, when Greg Owen finished bogey-bogey to cripple [1.07] backers.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: