General / Paul Krishnamurty / 30 September 2008 /

After tipping [150.00] outsider Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to win the British Masters, Paul Krishnamurty was impressed by the way the Spaniard held his nerve to close the deal. If only other, more celebrated players, could follow his lead...

If ever a clear illustration was required to explain the importance of 'bottle' in golf betting, we need look no further than the contrasting experiences of two Spaniards over the weekend.

With his fourth win in as many seasons as a professional, my [150.00] tip Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano proved again that he has what it takes in the psychological department. His final-round 67 to win the British Masters was a quite inspirational effort, repeatedly producing the goods under pressure to overturn a three-shot deficit against his more illustrious playing partners.

Besides spotting a good effort last time out, my main motivation for selecting Castano was his outstanding win ratio -this was his fourth European Tour win in just 102 starts. Considering that he's traded at well over [50.0] for each, anyone loyally backing this obviously capable player every week would be massively in profit.

That title lifted Castano 68 places into the top-100 of the world rankings, but he's still light years behind his infinitely more famous compatriot Sergio Garcia at No.5. Yet consider this amazing statistic. In the last three seasons, Castano has won three times as many titles as Garcia, whose only success came in the Players' Championship.

Sergio's supporters must be at their wits-end after yet more final-round misery at the Tour Championship. The list of events he's lost after trading at odds-on grows by the week. This time he blew a three-shot lead with a lacklustre one-over par effort, following on from a poor finish to lose the recent USPGA. Sadly, for all his talent and consistency, Garcia has become a serial failure and must be branded as a Grade A 'Bottler'.

He hasn't always been though. In the early part of his career, Garcia was fairly prolific, winning almost immediately upon turning pro and nearly landing the PGA at the first attempt. Until this year's disappointing Ryder Cup performance, Sergio had been a superstar in that high-pressure event. Somewhere along the line he's lost his nerve, particularly since putting became a chronic problem.

Nevertheless, because he's one of the very best players around and a likely contender every time he plays, Garcia always starts amongst the favourites. Even when conditions appear to suit his game, its become very hard to justify a bet at short odds, often single figures. And given that awful record on the final day, Garcia has become a banker lay whenever trading odds-on. [1.65] going into Sunday proved a predictably popular lay.

Though his situation is less desperate, there are obvious comparisons to be drawn with Lee Westwood. Once a winning machine, Westwood has struggled time and again this year to close the deal despite apparently playing the best golf of his life. Sunday's defeat probably owed more to Castano's brilliance than Westwood's mistakes, but he never looked wholly comfortable with the lead.

That makes it seven top-3 finishes without one victory this season, a statistic that has become increasingly difficult to defend. It can't be pure coincidence that 17 of his 19 Euro Tour titles came over five years ago, especially considering that he's more consistent on the world stage nowadays. Like Garcia but to a lesser extent, the big problem appears to be an inability to hole birdie putts when in contention.

These two are the most high-profile candidates for 'bottler' status right now, but there are plenty of other dodgy finishers that are often found near the head of the outright market. In Europe, two Ryder Cup players particularly stand out for their career long inability to close the deal. Paul McGinley has a miserable return of two wins from 230 top-level starts this century. Even worse is Soren Hansen's return of two wins from 243 starts. The lesson is clear - avoid backing these players and lay them when in contention.

Remember though, especially when it comes to up and coming players, landing a first win can transform a player's temperament under pressure. It took Camilo Villegas 86 events to win his first PGA Tour event, a run that generated much criticism amongst the golf betting fraternity. But after breaking through at the BMW Championship, he followed up immediately at East Lake for a second consecutive win. The way Villegas stormed through the pack and held his nerve to beat Garcia confirmed his improvement under pressure and suggested to me that, of the pair, he'll win more titles in the coming years.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: