General / Editor / 20 August 2007 / Leave a Comment

Value lies with unheralded players says Betfair customer Craig Dutton

Odds compilation is not a job I envy. In all honesty, I can't envisage people sharing a lifelong dream for the blue skies and bright lights of odds compilation. I don't remember my careers advice teacher having many leaflets on pricing up a Seniors golf event.

I'm sure when you're experienced at it the rewards are obvious - pitting your wits against your entire base of customers and hopefully coming out on top. But the pitfalls are scarily huge. When most people err at work, their coffee tastes rank because they forgot to stir the sugar in. If an odds compiler errs, he may as well just type the jobcentre into his Sat Nav.

The evolution of betting exchanges, however, gave us all a chance to try our hand, and with less pressure. We have only one book to balance, and if we want to take on Woods, we can - it's not so easy for a major firm. There's still no excuse to price first goalscorers at 4.5 (7/2) or lower, but that's a drum to be banged some other time.

The prices of Woods, Mickelson and Els rarely reflect their chances of winning an event, more the fact that people have heard of them, know they were/are very good, and they are popular. They are 'media-sexy'.

Devoid of media-sexy golfers, this weekend's Wyndham Championship was a wide-open event. Players usually pigeonholed in the "100-1 rags" category suddenly become favourites for a tournament. As a rule, this is our best chance to spot value (and also dire value) in a market. I think it's impossible for odds compilers to be familiar with all players so proficiently, especially virtual unknowns. I'm not an odds compiler, and never will be, but I'm sure some players in the lower echelons of celebrity just get given any old price.

This is where we can take advantage. The aim is to find players consistently making cuts, consistently gaining places in tournaments. But we don't want the players with jazz hands - we want the ones wearing tweed. We want that ugly girl in the corner with spots and newly fitted braces. Not the best compliment to award a golfer I agree, but here's an example. Trevor Immelman. Not a complete wallflower, but you're unlikely to see his picture in your newspaper. In 2006, T9 in the American Express Championships, T5 Canadian Open, 2nd in the Byron Nelson, T7 the Nissan Open and won the Cialis Western Open. Barring a two-month run, he never missed a cut. Now that kind of consistency, as Betfair customers (what are we called? Betfairians? Betfairers? Betfairies?) should bring tears to our eyes. Woods can't match that level of consistency all of the time, Mickelson certainly can't. Odds for the US Open? He was 67.0 (66/1)! The British Open? The same again! Mickelson, the media-sexy Phil Mickelson, was 15 per cent the price of Immelman even with a gammy wrist!

For the KLM Open, look at some fixed-odds prices. Choose a player who you think has been underrated, and performs consistently well. Log onto Betfair. Bet him at far greater odds than any high street firm would offer you, and you could - perhaps even should - be on to a nice little earner. Trust me, I'm a doctor. Honest.

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