General / Paul Krishnamurty / 30 October 2007 / 1

Twists and turns look guaranteed at Valderrama

I'm sure he never meant it as such, but Ernie Els' decision to play in the lucrative Singapore Open this week instead of the prestigious season-finale Volvo Masters could easily be interpreted as a snub to the European Tour. If he had opted for Spain ahead of Asia, a fairly straightforward task to win the Order of Merit awaited.

Perhaps it's the fact that Ernie has won it twice before and in fairness, the Big Easy did say recently that the Singapore trip was a longstanding commitment that he couldn't renege upon.

Money has also played a part. Ernie shone a light on the financial ins-and-outs of the top golfers when he said: "The end of the year is when you get the wheelbarrow out. You have got to cash in." Which would further explain why he's gone to Singapore and not Spain.

In any case, his non-appearance at Valderrama leaves the Order of Merit very much alive in this final week. I've listed the full standings and decisive prize money on offer below. Four players can feasibly overtake Ernie. Niclas Fasth and Henrik Stenson must win, Justin Rose and Padraig Harrington need to finish at least a clear third. In the case of the first two, even if they win they would still need the latter pair to finish lower than second. In a limited field of 54 though, these are anything but forlorn hopes. In fact the combined odds for any of those four players to win the event is merely around 3.6.

So what of each contender's chances? The outsider of five, Fasth, has steadily improved around this tricky Spanish track. He's finished 7th and 5th in the last couple of years, and has generally improved his world status over the past year. On his best 2007 form Fasth would have a cracking chance, but he was extremely disappointing over the weekend at Pula when looking certain to make sizeable inroads into that money list deficit.

Fellow Swede Stenson doesn't strike me as the perfect Valderrama type, a point shown in a moderate course record of 53/19/9 from three starts. He too though has reached career peaks this year, beating a stellar field in Dubai and winning the WGC Matchplay. And after a disappointing summer, Stenson looked right back to his best on his last outing at the Wentworth version of the World Match Play.

Obviously, Harrington and Rose have much stronger chances, not least because they only need to finish a clear third. Open champion Harrington took his time learning how to conquer Valderrama, but on the last couple of years' evidence he's finally got the hang of it. He finished like a train in second last year to snatch the Order of Merit title from Paul Casey's grasp, and in 2005 scored better than anyone over the weekend to make the top-10. I've always felt Pod was a better player when coming from behind with the pressure off, so he still holds a very strong chance.

As for Rose, nobody deserves the title more. The US-based Englishman has only played in 11 events that counted towards the money list, three fewer than Harrington and seven fewer than Els. His £2.2m total is even more impressive when you consider that he hasn't won a single event, whereas Els and Harrington's totals were massively boosted by wins in the World Match Play and Open Championship respectively. In recent interviews, Justin has been talking a very good game about this late-season bid. The only thing against him is that he hasn't played Valderrama for four years and did nothing much on two previous visits. Its questionable how relevant this point is though, as he's clearly improved dramatically in the intervening four years.

We can at least be confident that the market should be exciting in-running over the weekend. Ernie starts odds-on, but it only needs one of these four contenders to go favourite or second favourite for the event and everything could change dramatically. Remember that last year Paul Casey was matched at shorter than 1.1 on the final day before the title was snatched from under his nose. On that occasion, the title wasn't even decided by the time both players had finished - it took a final hole bogey from Sergio Garcia to enhance Harrington's prize money and elevate him into top spot. So from both an entertainment and a trading perspective, here's hoping for similar drama on Sunday!

Current Order of Merit standings

1 ERNIE ELS €2,496,237
2 PADRAIG HARRINGTON €2,278,942
3 JUSTIN ROSE €2,278,285
4 HENRIK STENSON €1,986,191
5 NICLAS FASTH €1,873,239

Volvo Masters prize money

1st € 666,660
2nd € 444,440
3rd € 250,400

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1. Mike Norman | 31 October 2007

   Very informative post Paul, thank you.

   I'm amazed that Ernie has opted out, instead going to Singapore to fill his wheelbarrow (his words not mine). As if these guys need the money ;-)

   Do you think the door is open for a good priced winner, with the big four in contention for the Order Of Merit probably being under a little more pressure than usual.

   Sergio's game looked solid last week, but the guys confidence with the putter must be shattered. His record in this event is outstanding though, but at the odds, I have to oppose.

   Anyway, my two against the field are Soren Hansen and Andres Romero, both around 45 on BF.

   Good luck, and I'm sure we will get the drama expected.

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