World Cup 2010 / Dave Farrar / 09 October 2009 / 1 Comments

An Italian manager coaching the Republic of Ireland provides a fascinating sub-plot to an already intriguing match. To bet on it you need to understand the context of it, says Dave Farrar, and the circumstances mean going low on goals is the call.

"Both sides would be more than happy with a point at Croke Park. The Irish coach says that the game will be “open and intense”, and while I wouldn’t disagree with the second word, I honestly can’t see this being a match which is full of chances."

Italy go to Dublin knowing that they can afford to lose to the Republic of Ireland and still be odds-on favourites to qualify for the South Africa next summer. But the most intriguing sub plot of this game is the tactical battle which is likely to ensue: Lippi against Trapattoni should be fascinating. Trapattoni has more than his fair share of injuries to contend with, and the prospect of dealing with Liam Lawrence will hardly have the Italian back line waking up in a cold sweat.

Those who are eager to back Italy at [2.5] to win the game would do well to remember that Italy only need a draw to be sure of qualifying for the World Cup, and the Republic were good enough to get a draw when they travelled to Bari at the beginning of April. Trapattoni isn't stupid though, and he knows that the prospect of qualifying automatically will still be remote even if his team wins on Saturday night.

With Bulgaria still having two very winnable fixtures, the vastly experienced team behind the Republic (Tardelli and Brady alongside Trap) know that Wednesday's match against Montenegro is arguably more important than this one.

Both sides would be more than happy with a point at Croke Park. The Irish coach says that the game will be "open and intense", and while I wouldn't disagree with the second word, I honestly can't see this being a match which is full of chances. For that to happen, it would need an early goal, and if the match remains tight going into the second half, those who have backed a low scoring game in some form or other will be helped by the fact that Italy will hold onto what they have got, and the Republic of Ireland will start to consider Wednesday and Montenegro.

The presence on the field of two of the World's best goalkeepers is also on the side of anyone who wants a low scoring game. Under 2.5 goals is unbackable at [1.58], and [2.72] for under 1.5 isn't a price which does much for me either. There are obvious trading opportunities there, but perhaps the best thing to do is to back a 0-0 Correct Score at [7.0]. I would keep the stakes low, and wouldn't put you off a small stake on under 1.5 goals as well. This really isn't a game which provides us with great punting opportunities, but with it available on television, rather than online, it should at least provide some interest on Saturday evening.

RECOMMENDATION Back 0-0 Correct Score at [7.0]

Tags: Italian football, Republic of Ireland, Robbie Keane, World Cup betting, World cup odds