World Cup 2010 / Ralph Ellis / 12 October 2009 / Leave a comment

When it comes to World Cup betting, punters need to consider more than the teamsheets, says Ralph Ellis.

"Five of the nine host cities next summer are more than 1,000 metres above sea level...
In fact, Johannesburg, venue for the final, is the highest of them all at 1,694metres."

Fantastic team, Bolivia. Must be.

I woke up this morning to the news they'd beaten Brazil 2-1 and thought: 'Here are the big danger side for South Africa in the summer'. Did a bit of research. In the last year they've also beaten Paraguay and Peru and thrashed the pants of Argentina 6-1. Logged on to my Betfair account quickly, this surely was a chance to get back what I'd lost laying Ukraine on Saturday night. What price are Bolivia for the World Cup? Not in the betting at all? And Brazil are still [5.9] favourites? How can that be?

Bolivia haven't qualified, is how. Even after their latest win over historically the World's greatest football nation they are second from bottom of the South American qualifying table. And there lies one of the issues waiting for us when we get to South Africa this summer: altitude.

It's thanks to playing at 3,637metres into the sky at the Hernando Silas Stadium in La Paz that Bolivia have such a home record. If you've ever been up Mount Teide on a holiday in Tenerife and struggled for breath after getting out of the cable car, then think about what it would be like to play football there. Yet there's a similar problem laying in wait because five of the nine host cities next summer are more than 1,000 metres above sea level.

In fact Johannesburg, venue for the final, is the highest of them all at 1,694metres. And given that the semi-finals are both at sea level in Cape Town and Durban it's going to pose a major challenge to the two sides which make it through.

In other words, when you're looking at betting on any World Cup game, whether it be this week's last round of qualifiers or once the tournament starts, you've got to take so many more factors into account than just the strength of the teams on paper.

Take England's defeat in Ukraine. With hindsight, playing Rio Ferdinand in a game that didn't matter was an accident waiting to happen. He'd shown his sloppy side by giving away an injury time goal in the Manchester derby. On Saturday, he was sleeping again when he left Robert Green exposed to a red card. England are [1.2] to wrap up their group with a win over Belarus on Wednesday but with Rio in carnival mood and Wayne Rooney injured, I'm not sure I'd trust it.

Defending is all about concentration. Perhaps Rio - and Ashley Cole who was also more X-rated than X-factor - should have a look at the DVD of Germany's 1-0 win in Russia. They showed admirable discipline after Miroslav Klose's early goal and Joachim Loew's young side were confirmed as Group Four winners. They are coming together at the right time (as the Germans alway do). At [13.5] they represent terrific value as potential World Cup winners.

England's 10-man debacle left Spain as the only country other than Holland still boasting a 100 per cent qualifying record as Cesc Fabregas helped them to a 2-1 win in Armenia. Their trip to Group Five's second placed team Bosnia-Herzegovina on Wednesday will tell us a good deal more about their mental strength. They are [2.2] to wrap up the group with their 10th victory, and second favourites at [6.0] to win the tournament. But here's a thought - their previous 15 match winning streak was ended last summer in the Confederations Cup when they lost to America in Bloemfontein, one of the altitude venues at 1,353 metres.

Back at sea level any thought that Cristiano Ronaldo might not make it to the World Cup has now been banished. Half fit, he did enough in 27 minutes to set up a 3-0 win over Hungary that means a home win over Malta gets Portugal through to the play-offs.

There will be some big names with them. France, Russia and either Greece or Ukraine will join the Portuguese as the seeds, bringing another challenge for the Republic of Ireland who were seconds away from the chance to qualify outright until Alberto Gilardino's last minute equaliser for Italy in a 2-2 draw in Dublin.

At least the Republic remain in control of their own destiny. Northern Ireland need to win by six goals away to the Czech Republic on Wednesday and then hope that San Marino beat Slovenia. You might say they've got a mountain to climb!

Tags: Argentina, Brazil, Cristiano Ronaldo, England, Ralph Ellis, Ukraine, Wayne Rooney, World Cup 2010 Football Betting Odds