Europa League / Alsy / 17 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Villa and Man City are already through, Spurs are virtually guaranteed progress and Portsmouth are already out so for one reason or another all four English clubs are probably already thinking ahead to this weekend's Premiership fixtures, according to Alister Morgan.

Portsmouth delivered 90 minutes of top-notch entertainment hosting AC Milan in their last Uefa Cup game. They produced some stunning, free-flowing football to take a 2-0 lead until the final ten minutes. Just when the drama promised a happy ending Pompey's defending switched from perfect to pantomime and the dream of European glory faded with a 2-2 draw.

Consequently the match against Dutch side Heerenveen is a "dead rubber" in every sense of the word. Both teams are on there way out of the competition and, while European football is still relatively new at Fratton Park, Tony Adams will need little reminding that his real priority is Bolton Wanderers this weekend.

A rash of injuries gives Adams the opportunity to rotate and rest key players and I expect Herman Hreidarsson, David Nugent and Kanu to earn rare starts against a team yet to earn a solitary point. You can back the home side to win at [1.84] which says more about the poverty of talent in the visiting ranks than the merits of Portsmouth.

Defoe and Crouch are likely to remain on the bench unless Adams requires a striker to apply a coup de grace - odds of [5.1] to win is about right for Heerenveen so I don't expect much of a fight. I also expect a low-scoring affair making odds of [4.3] for Under 1.5 Goals an attractive option if you're unsure just how much Pompey care about the fixture.

Aston Villa will also make wholesale changes for their visit to Hamburg but for markedly different reasons. Both Villa and Hamburg have qualified so jostling for position is all that remains. Martin O'Neill has already stated that he's unconcerned with Villa's final qualifying position.

I expect him to rest as many first team players as possible making Villa's odds to win the game, at [4.4], appear pretty close to the mark. Zat Knight, Nicky Shorey, Nigel Reo-Coker and Marlon Harewood should all start - the spine of the team will be strong but the German hosts should be too strong on home soil, justifying Hamburg's price to win at [2.02]. The draw looks quite tempting at [3.5] as O'Neill's men have sufficient talent but I can't see such a disjointed first team beating the home side.

Once again, Premiership concerns linger in the background to this game. I don't believe that Villa will win tonight's match but I would recommend a glance at the Uefa Cup Winner market. Good sides remain in the mix but, to me, Villa seem undervalued at [17.5] to win. They have a great squad, a crafty manager and are certainly worth a punt at that price.

As usual Spurs have plenty of injury worries as they host Spartak Moscow Thursday night. Injuries to Jonathan Woodgate, Ledley King, Jermain Jenas and Alan Hutton allows Harry Redknapp to dip into his expensively-assembled squad for replacements. Roman Pavlyuchenko is likely to be given the chance to shine against his former club as Redknapp knows that one more victory will secure qualification.

Spurs can be backed to win at [1.78] and it's hard to imagine any other outcome reflected in the large odds for a Spartak victory at [5.4]. For a free-scoring side like Spurs, better value is usually available in the "correct score" market and no one expects Moscow to keep a clean sheet. You can back "over 3.5 Goals" at [2.58] but the most prudent option remains backing the home win. Can Spurs win the Uefa Cup at [17.5]? With one eye on the Premiership trapdoor, I think not.

Finally Manchester City travel to Spain Thursday to face Racing Santander with qualification already assured from Group A. Mark Hughes should feel slightly disturbed by the dismissal of Paul Ince at Blackburn - City's domestic form remains patchy but he can console himself that Europe provides a welcome distraction from domestic speculation.

Racing have not won so far in the group and, with qualifying beyond them, will just be playing for pride. The home team can be backed to win at [1.83] while Manchester City are [4.4] with the draw at [4.3]. Future Premiership commitments at the weekend will once again take precedence so don't expect to see many Brazilians running around in blue. Racing are decent team but I fancy City's chances of securing a draw. Predicting the result of so many dead rubbers is always tricky so honours-even might just be the way to go.

Manchester City are [13.5] to win the Uefa Cup with shorter odds than both Spurs and Villa but the Premiership table is perhaps a better indicator of their true potential this season. With AC Milan, Valencia and Sevilla still going strong I suspect the Uefa Cup will not be coming to English shores this year.