Europa League / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 01 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Everton travel to Belarus to face a BATE side who have not won once in six attempts in European competitions. The Toffees have won their last four without conceding a goal yet tonight's match will certainly be no walk in the park for David Moyes' side, says Jamie Pacheco.

"All of which makes you wonder why they’re as short as 1.82 to win the match. That is a price based on reputation alone rather than an genuine assessment of their chances to win the match and as such, should be laid."

Remember when Arsenal decided to play their Champions League fixtures at Wembley during the 1998/9 and 1999/0 seasons? Double the number of people through the turnstiles and we'll double our revenue, said the money men. Twice the number of Arsenal fans and we'll get twice the level of support, they thought. That can only be good for the team. Remember?

After three "home" defeats to Barcelona, Fiorentina and Lens (yes, Lens) from six matches the plan was abandoned. A bit like David Beckham's move to LA Galaxy or Mariah Carey's movie career.

BATE Borisov, Everton's opponents in the Europa League this afternoon, are another side are playing their European matches in someone else's stadium. Indeed, they have never hosted a European tie in their own backyard. Tonight's match will be played at the Dinamo Stadium in Minsk rather than their own Gorodskoi Stadium.

A very quick glance at the stats would suggest that with five defeats and one draw from their six ties, they have made the same mistake as Arsenal and suffered similar consequences. But this isn't quite true.

Firstly, the decision to change venues was out of necessity rather than financial greed after their own 5,000 capacity ground was deemed unfit for European competition. Secondly, scratch beneath the surface and you'll find no real disgrace in this record: visitors included a Zenit St Petersburg side (at the time UEFA Cup champions) featuring Anatoli Timoschuk and Andrei Arshavin, and Juventus, against whom they achieved a draw.

If that wasn't impressive enough, they went to Turin and got a point out of that match too. BATE are currently 20 matches into their season in the Belarusian league, lead the table by 10 points and have a game in hand.

There's no doubt Everton are currently an in-form side. They have won their last four matches in all competitions scoring 12 goals and conceding none. All well and good but the list of players unavailable for tonight's fixture would almost make a very decent Premier League 11: Steven Pienaar, Phil Neville, Jack Rodwell, Phil Jagielka, Victor Anichebe and Mikel Arteta all miss the match through injury, Louis Saha serves a one-match ban after a late (and needless) sending-off in their 4-0 win over AEK Athens whilst Lucas Neill and John Heitinga are ineligible.

Add to the equation an inevitably bruising encounter against Stoke coming up at the weekend which may lead to further players sitting out tonight's game, and the Everton XI that takes to the field may not carry the fear factor that it normally would.

So why are they as short as [1.82] to win the match? That is a price based on reputation alone rather than an genuine assessment of their chances to win the match and as such should be laid.

I wouldn't be surprised if David Moyes takes a leaf out of the book of the manager he most resembles. Scottish, no-nonsense and straight-talking, he is a younger Sir Alex Ferguson and a good bet at [8.6] to succeed him in the Man Utd hot seat. Before the days of 35-man squads, Sir Alex often used to play the established back five of Schmeichel, Parker, Irwin, Bruce and Pallister in League Cup matches whilst mixing things up in midfield and upfront by blooding youngsters such as Paul Scholes and David Beckham.

If Moyes does the same thing tonight, Everton could be in line for a fifth consecutive clean sheet. With Saha's goals and Pienaar's creativity missing they might struggle to score, all of which make the [3.7] on under 1.5 goals an interesting price.

Recommended Bets:

Lay Everton to win @ [1.82]
Back Under 1.5 goals @ [3.75]

Tags: Europa League, Everton betting preview, football bets, football betting, Jamie pacheco Betfair, Saha suspension