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Everton risk being the first Premiership side ever to lose their first four home matches of the season whilst Newcastle could lose five Premiership matches in a row for the first time ever. Something's got to give, say bettorlogic.

Match Odds

A home win would consign Newcastle to their first five-game losing streak in the Premier League, while if Everton lose they would become only the third team in the league's history to open the season with four straight defeats at home. High stakes then, but the numbers suggest it should be the home side that breaks out of their slump.

Everton have lost to three teams who currently sit in the top half and, under Moyes, their record is markedly inferior against top-half finishers (W22-D10-L25) than against those that finish in the bottom half (W41-D15-L5), where the Magpies look likely to place (only 4/35 teams with fewer than five points at this stage have finished in the top half).

Newcastle had shown signs of improvement on the road under Keegan, including a run of one loss (albeit at Goodison) in six games. But this is a side that has lost 60% (W13-D11-L36) of their away matches since the start of the 05/06 season: the most for any team that has been in the league all that time. What successes they have had have generally come against weaker sides, losing 28 of 39 (72%) games away to teams that finish outside the bottom six in that period.

For an Everton team that has won roughly two thirds (19/29) of its home games against non-Big Four sides in the last two years, [1.84] is too long.

Correct score

The most common scores at Goodison in that two-year spell have been 1-0 (5/29) and 2-0 (4/29). The 0-1 (5/29) crops up more than any other score for Newcastle away to non-Big Four sides over the same period, followed by the 1-2 and 1-3 (both 4/29). On the numbers that makes the 1-0 (8.0) the stand out option, but we would be wary of it given Everton's recent defensive troubles.

HT/FT
Despite winning 19 games in the afore-mentioned sample, Everton have had half-time leads in only 10 and have drawn eight of their last 12 first halves at home to non-Big Four sides. Indeed, the D/W accounts for only one fewer (9/19) of their wins in that period than the W/W, including five of their last seven.

As Everton have been better in the second half of those home games (F19-A10 before the break, F35-A11 after it) so Newcastle have been worse after the break on the road (F15-A15 then F17-A32). They have lost only seven of their 29 first halves on the road in that time - drawing 17 of them - with the D/L (9/16 defeats) outweighing the L/L (6/16). All this makes the D/W for Everton appear excellent value at 5.6

Everton clean sheet

Everton have kept clean sheets in nearly half of their games (14/29) at Goodison against non-Big Four teams but only one of those has come in their last seven, and that was against Derby. The Magpies have failed to score in only three of their 16 away to non-Big Four sides since the start of last season, so 'No' is probably a bit long at [1.56].

Newcastle clean sheet

While Newcastle have been scoring on their travels they have been conceding more often, managing two clean sheets in 16 road matches and only three in the 29 games they have played at non-Big Four sides in the last two years. Everton's home numbers match that almost exactly (two failures to score since the start of last season and four in the last two years against non-Big Four sides). There might be a little value in a [1.19] 'No' but it looks about priced in.