Stats / Andrew Atherley / 22 October 2008 / Leave a comment

We know that Man City have been a model of inconsistency so far this season, we know what their stats from the last few seasons are and that they intend to buy big in January. So let's get down to some betting based on this knowledge, says Andrew Atherley.

"Strangely erratic" was how one newspaper this week described Manchester City's form. A quick reading of the league table would suggest that judgment is not too far wide of the mark: City have won three but lost four of their first eight games and, while they are the Premier League's highest scorers, no team outside the bottom five has conceded more goals.

For punters, however, it pays to read between the form lines, and City may be a case in point. First of all, it is worth considering the teams that have beaten them - three of their four defeats came against teams (Chelsea, Liverpool and Aston Villa) that finished in the top six last season and are currently in that zone again. The other defeat was at Wigan, a bogey team for City since joining the Premier League (five defeats and two draws for City in seven league meetings).

Then look at the other form line: when City have played teams from outside last season's top six, their record this season (including the Wigan game) is won three, drawn one, lost one. And that is a significant measure of a team's underlying form - if we used points gained against teams from outside the top six to draw up last season's final table, it would hardly differ from the overall table (in other words, we can almost ignore results against the top six if we want to measure a team's standing in the Premier League).

Looking at City's goals conceded, 10 out of 14 have been against Chelsea, Liverpool and Villa, which means that they have conceded a far healthier four in five games against teams that finished outside the top six last season.

They have kept a clean sheet in three of those five games, which indicates that their defence might not be as leaky as the overall figures suggest.

City averaged 1.69 points per game (ppg) against teams from outside the top six last season, which ranked them ninth (exactly the position in which they finished in the overall table), so it is possible that they have improved this season as they are currently averaging 2.0ppg against teams from outside the top six (admittedly from a small sample of five games).

Every team that averaged 2.0ppg+ against teams outside the top six achieved a top-five placing last season, so at their current average City are showing form that could put them in the European places, even before their expected spending spree in the January transfer window.
Betfair punters are clearly more aware than the sports writers, as City's finishing position is currently [5.7] to sell and [6.4] to buy, precisely the range expected of them if that underlying form line is accurate.

In the Top Six Finish market, City are a tempting [2.02] as they look well equipped already to make a challenge even before any big-name reinforcements arrive in January. There is not much margin for error, though, as it is inconceivable that any of the big four will finish outside the top six and Villa look solid for another top-six finish.

Another option, and possibly better value, is buying City at [58] in the Premier League Points market. Last season they finished on 55 points, having looked set for a higher total for most of the season before wobbling late on as speculation mounted over Sven Goran Eriksson's future. They could get into the 60s this time, if they maintain their early average against the lower-placed teams and grab a similar number of points as last season (11 out of a possible 36) against the elite.

In Season Match Bets, City are up against the likes of Villa, Portsmouth and Everton - available to back at [2.0], [1.32] and [1.30] respectively. There has not been much to choose between those sides since the start of last season and at this stage backing City against Villa or against the others at short odds would be a risk despite the good signs in their form.

The next month will be a good indicator of which way City will go, and whether Mark Hughes can prove to the new owners that he's the man for the job, as their fixture list is relatively easy. None of their next five games is against a team that finished in the top 10 last season (two of the opponents are promoted teams) and again that is a category in which City performed well last season, averaging 1.75ppg against bottom-half finishers.

It is noteworthy that Blackburn under Hughes were one of the best teams at maximising their points return from such games - they averaged 2.20ppg against bottom-half finishers last season, losing just two out of 20 (in their previous two full seasons under Hughes, their average was 1.83ppg).

Hughes already has in place at City several of the building blocks that served him so well at Blackburn. Goalkeeper Joe Hart is not yet in the Brad Friedel class, but he is a solid enough base to a spine that goes through Richard Dunne, a rugged defender in the Ryan Nelsen mould. There is quality delivery from wide areas (for David Bentley and Morten Gamst Pedersen, read Shaun Wright-Phillips and Martin Petrov). And then, in Robinho, Elano and Jo, Hughes has a touch of Brazilian flair that he didn't possess at Blackburn.

Starting with Sunday's home match against Stoke, therefore, City look a team to have on side in the coming weeks. Against teams outside the elite, backing them for home wins and off scratch on the Asian handicap on their travels could be another route to profit.