Stats / Bettorlogic / 03 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Neither side are in good form at the minute and both are in desperate need of points for very different reasons. But current form aside, the stats bode very well for Man Utd who should really take all three points, say Bettorlogic. Best bet: Back Man Utd/Man Utd @ 2.2.

Match Odds

United's loss of form has seen them fall back to the pack somewhat but fortunately for them their visitors are going through an even worse run. Villa have claimed just one point from their last five league matches, their joint-worst run under O'Neill and one that last time was followed by a 3-1 defeat at Old Trafford.

That was a familiar result for Villa though, having taken just four points from their last 23 encounters in the league with the Red Devils and not beaten them since the opening day of the 1995/96 season. It is over 25 years since the Villans last won at Old Trafford and they have lost on 10 of their last 11 trips there. Their form at the Big Four had been good under O'Neill, losing only two of their first seven encounters and scoring in each but in the last year they have lost three of four (all to nil), culminating in the 5-0 drubbing at Anfield a fortnight ago.

Even taking into account their own pasting from the Reds, United's home record is spectacular, going W44-D4-L4 since the start of 06/07 including a W15-D0-L1 mark against top-half (non-Big Four) finishers. The only concern would seem to be their poor record (W12-D9-L2) in the home game following a home defeat, although even that reads W8-D2-L0 in their title-winning seasons. All in all, United to win at [1.47] looks a good choice.

Correct score

Since 06/07, the 'unquoted' score is the most common at Old Trafford (14/52), followed by the 2-0 win. Against top-half finishers the 2-0 and 3-0 wins lead the way (both 5/24). 1-1 is the most common score for Villa at the Big Four under O'Neill (3/11), although as noted above, three of their last four such games have ended with losses to nil.

HT/FT

United have recorded a W/W in well over half of their home games over the last three seasons (30/52), including in two thirds of their games against top-half finishers (16/24) and three quarters of those excluding the Big Four (12/16).

Each of Villa's five losses at the Big Four under O'Neill have been L/Ls and they have suffered 14 in 23 games at the Big Four in the Abramovich (2003/04 - ) era. Man Utd/Man Utd looks almost as strong as the home win itself and thus great value at [2.2].

Man Utd clean sheet

While United conceded an unprecedented four goals in their last home game, they have still kept 10 clean sheets in 14 at Old Trafford this season and 31 in 52 games there since the start of 2006/07. They have managed 14 in 24 home games against top-half finishers in that spell and 10 in 16 excluding the Big Four.

Villa haven't scored against one of the current top-half sides since the 2-2 draw with Arsenal on Boxing Day, failing to net in three of their seven such games on the road this season and two of three at the Big Four. They have also netted just four goals in their last 14 league visits to Old Trafford and not more than one since their last win here, 2-1 in 1983 -- all of which points to the home clean sheet as value ([2.0]).

Aston Villa clean sheet

United's blank at Craven Cottage was only their third in their last 50 games and the last side to keep them out at home was Reading on the opening day of last season. Villa's figures in this market are even more extreme, with one clean sheet against the Big Four (albeit this season at the Emirates) in nine seasons (35 games).