Stats / Bettorlogic / 03 April 2009 / Leave a comment

It's a match that could have a huge bearing on the outcome of the Premier League and one that the stats suggest Liverpool will do very well to win, according to Bettorlogic. Best bet: Lay Liverpool @ [1.7].

Match Odds

The last round of games saw these two teams inject further life into the title race with Fulham taking advantage of Man Utd's ill discipline and Liverpool routing a fading Villa side. Consequently the Reds will go back to the top of the table if they avoid defeat here with United facing Villa on Sunday.

That does not appear as much of a forgone conclusion as the home win price ([6.6]) suggests. Fulham have lost only one of their six league meetings with the Big Four this season (at Old Trafford) and, going back to the 05/06 campaign, only Man U themselves have won more home games against the Big Four than Fulham's six (W6-D1-L8) -- even with a clean sweep of losses at home last season. Indeed, taking Spurs at 11th as a cut-off of the league's better sides, Fulham's W4-D2-L1 mark at home against those teams is bettered by only the top two this season. Even including away fixtures against those sides the Cottagers have lost only four of their 15 (W4-D7-L4).

Liverpool's equivalent away form (W4-D3-L1) is good rather than outstanding and their record at mid-table finishers (7th to 14th, including the teams currently in those spots) under Benitez is less than stellar at W13-D12-L12. It is better in the last two seasons (W6-D5-L2) but that is still a win rate below 50% which, coupled with Fulham's impressive home record and overall resilience, suggests the Liverpool win should be opposed at [1.7].

Correct score

The most common scores at Craven Cottage of late have been the 2-0 and 2-1 wins (both 4/24 under Hodgson and 3/15 this season), although the 1-0 win (3/15) has been marginally most prevalent against the Big Four since 05/06. No score has occurred more than twice on the road for Liverpool this season and there seems little to go on in this market.

HT/FT

Since trailing 2-0 at half-time at Eastlands just under a year ago, Fulham have lost just two of their subsequent 32 opening periods, conceding a miserly eight first-half goals. This season, they have won 10 of their 15 first halves at home (Man U's seven is the next best) -- including all three against the Big Four. As a result, the W/W dominates their form in this market (8/15) and is as well represented as the L/L (both 5/15) when hosting the Big Four since 05/06.

Over the same period, Liverpool have trailed at the break in only three of 32 league games, although they have managed just nine half-time leads in that time. Liverpool's away record this season has had an equal number of W/Ws as D/Ws (both 4/15) with the D/D (3/15) not far behind.

Given their form, it is hard to see either side behind at the break, which would point to the half-time draw based outcomes -- although Fulham's recent history suggests the home Win/Win ([13.5]) represents excellent value for backers of the home side.

Fulham clean sheet

Liverpool have failed to score in two of their last three trips to the Cottage, part of five clean sheets for Fulham in their last 15 hosting the Big Four in the league, and have kept six in 15 in the league this season. Liverpool have scored in 12 of their 15 away games this season and in 21 of 28 at non-Big Four sides since the start of last season.

Liverpool clean sheet

Over those same away samples the Reds have kept six clean sheets in 15 and 13 in 28 -- although they have managed just one in their last eight away games. Fulham have failed to score in just two of their 15 home matches this season and in only five of their last 18 hosting the Big Four in the league, making the Liverpool clean sheet look far too short at [2.2].