Stats / Bettorlogic / 12 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Man Utd are in irresistible form in all competitions at the moment but this does appear to be the strongest Liverpol side in years. Uninterested in hunches and the like, Bettorlogic talk stats in order to find some good betting options. Best bet: Back Man Utd to win @ [1.99].

Match Odds

After their demolition of Madrid in midweek, Liverpool will be seeking to keep alive their faint title hopes at Old Trafford. Arguably, it is only their form against the Big Four this season (W3-D1-L0 compared to United's W1-D1-L2) that has kept them within contention, although they will have to overcome a terrible record (four games, four defeats and their only goal scored by Man Utd defender John O'Shea) at Old Trafford under Rafael Benitez.

The Reds had a similar record at Arsenal and Chelsea (W0-D3-L12 in Benitez's first 15 at the Big Four in all competitions) but are now unbeaten in five at their Big Four rivals and nine home and away.

A trip to Manchester is a different prospect however, with United winning 12 of 16 against the Big Four (in all competitions) since 04/05, including a W11-D0-L1 mark against "non-Mourinho" managers.

Liverpool do appear a significantly sterner test than in previous seasons but United's home win rate makes it impossible to look beyond their [1.99] win price.

Correct score

Of United's 12 home wins against the Big Four since 04/05 all but two were to nil, with four 2-0s and three 1-0. Similarly, against top-half sides since the start of last season, they have recorded 10 wins to nil in 14 games with the 2-0 (4/14) edging the 3-0 (3/14).

Liverpool have scored just four goals against United since Rafa took charge -- two of which were home goals -- with Ferguson's side scoring four 1-0 wins in that time (although only one at home was by that score). More generally, the Reds have lost half of their league games at the Big Four in that time to nil, with four 1-0 defeats and three 2-0s.

Covering all of the United to nil scores looks a decent option, with the 2-0 ([9.6]) standing out.

HT/FT

The W/W dominates United's results against the top half (11/14) since the start of last season as well as against the Big Four (8/16 since 04/05, including four of the last six).

Liverpool have been behind at the break in just four of their last 20 games against the Big Four, although two were in the four games against Man U. Since 04/05 they have suffered a L/L in eight of their 14 league games at the Big Four, although none in their unbeaten last five.

As with the match odds, United's trends overwhelm Liverpool's recent progress and the home W/W has to be the call ([3.45]).

Man Utd clean sheet

United have kept 10 clean sheets in their last 16 at home to the other Big Four sides (nine in 12 against non-Mourinho managed teams) as well as conceding in only nine of 32 home league games since the start of last season.

Liverpool have finally discovered the ability to score away against the Big Four, having netted in all of their last five, but they have failed to do so in seven of Benitez's 10 head-to-heads with Ferguson and 12 of 20 overall on the road under the Spaniard.

The [2.28] price on another clean sheet for United looks worth taking.

Liverpool clean sheet

While the Reds' scoring record at the Big Four is bad under Benitez, their defensive one is worse -- managing only four clean sheets in 20 games (in all competitions) -- and none in 10 games at Arsenal and Man Utd in that time. United haven't failed to score in the league at home since the opening day of last season against Reading and have done so only once in 16 when hosting the Big Four since 04/05. 'No' ([1.3]) is the only option.