Football Betting: Stats value

Stats / Matthew Walton / 08 January 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Matthew Walton makes a value contribution to the stats and betting debate, arguing that close analysis can give you an edge over other punters...

"We’ve highlighted several lines of investigation which illustrate the kind of research you can do to gain that all important edge over your fellow traders in the second half of the season."

The conclusions drawn from a study of performance data, numerical tables and form guides should never be the sole reason for placing a bet. However, the use of such material can be, and some say should be, brought into the decision-making process at some point.

In terms of football, there is no end to the number of factual and statistical studies which we, as Betfair users, can undertake before we start trading. Referencing any number of sources to produce a variety of different angles related to betting, or laying, profitably on the exchange.

We've highlighted several lines of investigation which illustrate the kind of research you can do to gain that all important edge over your fellow traders in the second half of the current season.

Low Ratio Of Draws

Spanish side Getafe are yet to draw a single game in La Liga this season (P16 W9 D0 L7). A bizarre occurrence which, if it were replicated from hereon, would provide a substantial profit from laying the draw in their matches. Similar examples are found in England with Manchester United (1 draw/20 games) and Bordeaux in France (1 draw/19 games).

And it is a fact that certain sides, every season, have such statistical anomalies related to particular aspects of their play and this, as we say, can be a first consideration (or final clincher) in the selection of a bet. The same applies for these further examples drawn from various top divisions around Europe.

High Bookings Index Make-Up

Go to Italy, the home of uncompromising defenders and tough tackling midfielders, and you find Catania (55 yellows/2 reds) and Genoa (50 yellows/2 reds) as the main offenders in Serie A. Their average make-up per match (over 60 points combined) is higher than all other sides in the Italian top flight ... and it just so happens they play each other this weekend - what chance a high make-up?

Losing Away Sides

French team, Le Mans have an away record this season of P9 W0 D0 L9 (F3 A18). An awful sequence which should prompt an almost blind support of their hosts whenever they are on the road (or an across the board policy of laying the Ligue 1 side in every away game). The likes of Hertha Berlin in Germany (W0 D1 L8) and Burnley in England (W0 D1 L9) are little better.

Once again, with both these examples, a very simple use of readily available data highlights some very interesting opportunities.

Total Goals

The team to watch in the second half of the season is Wolfsburg (at home) in the Bundesliga. Their average so far in 2009/10 of 4.55 goals per game is the highest make-up of any side in Europe - playing either home or away. By contrast, in France, Auxerre (also at home) average a mere 0.99 goals/game this season.

Correct Scores

Birmingham City have won 9 Premier League matches this season - of these, 6 have been by a 1-0 scoreline. At an average price of [7.0] that would make for a huge level stakes profit on these matches (and even backing them to win 1-0 in all 20 matches to date would still have generated a 80% profit on turnover). Deportivo in Spain (five 1-0 scorelines in 8 wins) and French league leaders Bordeaux (six 1-0's in 14 wins) deserve close attention.

This range of examples, covering a variety of betting markets - all of which are catered for on Betfair - illustrate the value of statistical research and its application to a successful betting strategy.

Patterns will inevitably change, just as new trends will appear, so a blinkered adherence to them is not wholly advisable. But, as you can see, an awareness of them can play a significant part in your betting.

Tags: Barcelona, Bordeaux, football betting odds, football betting strategy, football betting tips, Manchester United, Matthew Walton, Premier League football betting odds, Serie A betting odds