The Pay As You lay Column: Spurs can't keep on scoring freely

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 02 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Aaron Lennon has been a key player for Spurs going forward, chipping in with goals and assists but Andrew Atherlry suspects this might be the week when Harry Redknapp's side stop scoring.

"Under Gary Megson, only 13 of Bolton’s 36 home games (36%) have had over 2.5 goals and, with Tottenham’s attack in mind, Megson is likely to set up his team to be hard to break down."

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week Andrew turns his attentions to Ligue 1 and the Premier League.

Lay over 2.5 goals at [1.85] in Bolton v Tottenham

If you look only at Tottenham's figures (seven out of seven over 2.5 goals in the Premier League) this looks bound to be a high-scoring game, but that free-scoring run won't last forever and Bolton's contrasting figures have to be taken into account too. Under Gary Megson, only 13 of Bolton's 36 home games (36%) have had over 2.5 goals and, with Tottenham's attack in mind, Megson is likely to set up his team to be hard to break down. Another factor to take into account is that Tottenham have struggled in this fixture in the past, failing to win in their last nine league visits, with seven of those games having under 2.5 goals.

Lay Marseille at [1.59] v Monaco

Marseille have had a mixed start to the season, both in terms of opposition and in results, and they could be vulnerable against a team lying only two points behind them in the table. Three of their four wins have been against teams currently in the bottom six, and they have won only one of their other games, all of which were against teams in the top half of the table. Last season they won fewer than half (four out of nine) at home against top-half opponents, while Monaco, who look likely to be among that group this season, lost only three out of 10 away to top-half teams.

Lay Sochaux at [2.02] v Le Mans

Sochaux finished 14th last season after being embroiled in the relegation battle throughout the campaign, and after seven games of this season they are in the drop zone in 18th place. They have not improved, and might have regressed, and this season they have lost five and won just two of their first seven games, having won a lowly 10 games out of 38 last season. Those figures do not add up to an odds-on chance at [1.98] to back and they look a team to oppose. Le Mans are only a point ahead of Sochaux in the table, having lost all three away games, but those visits were to teams that finished in the top 10 last season and their home form indicates they could do better.