The Pay As You Lay Column: Villa Park is no fortress these days

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 28 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Aston Villa's start to the season has been far from promising with a home defeat to Wigan and an early exit from the Europa League, despite a shock away win at Anfield.

"Villa lost their opening home game of the Premier League season and a 2-1 victory over Rapid Vienna on Thursday night was not enough to keep them in the Europa League, which adds to the long-term doubt about whether they do enough at home to be considered an odds-on chance on a regular basis."

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week Andrew turns his attentions to Ligue 1 and the Premier League.

Lay Aston Villa at [1.8] v Fulham

Villa lost their opening home game of the Premier League season and a 2-1 victory over Rapid Vienna on Thursday night was not enough to keep them in the Europa League, which adds to the long-term doubt about whether they do enough at home to be considered an odds-on chance on a regular basis. They have won only three out of ten at home in the Premier League during 2009 and, just as worryingly, they often give their opponents a chance by having a high concession rate - since key defender Martin Laursen's last game for the club in January, Villa have conceded in 14 out of 19 overall in the league. Fulham have two main factors to recommend them - a strong defence and an improving record on the road, where their only defeats in nine league games since the start of February have been against Chelsea and Manchester United.

Lay St Etienne at [1.77] v Grenoble

Are St Etienne that much better than Grenoble? Not if you look at the early Ligue 1 table, which has St Etienne in 19th, a place below Grenoble, after both teams lost their opening three games. Nor if you look at last season's final table, which had Grenoble in 13th and St Etienne 17th. Neither team has had particularly difficult early fixtures, but the worrying statistic for odds-on backers is that St Etienne have scored only one goal in three games. That appears to be confirmation of the pre-season view that they would struggle to replace striker Bafetimbi Gomis, now with Lyon, after he scored a quarter of their goals last season. Grenoble are strong in defence and midfield, even if they are lightweight in attack too, and will not be easy to beat.

Lay Paris Saint-Germain at [1.93] v Lille

Lille had a surprise defeat on the opening day of the season, 2-1 at home to Lorient, but their only defeat since was 1-0 away to Marseille, when they were reduced to 10 men. They qualified for the Europa League group stage with home-and-away wins over Belgian side Genk and they got their first point of the Ligue 1 season last weekend with a home 1-1 against Toulouse. The Marseille game was their only failure to score this season and they will have a strong chance here if that scoring run continues, having lost only three out of 12 when scoring on the road last season. Paris Saint-Germain are one of those big-name teams that is often underpriced and last season, despite a good home record, they were upset six times at odds-on in home matches.