The Pay As You Lay Column: Three odds-on shots worth taking on in England, Spain and France

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 30 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Mallorca defender Josemi makes his point to the ref in their recent match against Atletico Madrid. The islanders are worth laying at home to Santander this week despite having won all their home matches so far.

"Mallorca have won all four home games this season, but that form is not quite as strong as it looks and might mean they are overrated for this match."

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week he's banking on overs in a Premier League match and two home sides getting turned over in Spain and France.

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.93] in Everton v Aston Villa

Rival managers David Moyes and Martin ONeill may be renowned for making their teams hard to beat, but that doesnt mean this match will necessarily be a cagey and defensive affair. Villa's three visits to Goodison Park under O'Neill have produced 13 goals, and overall seven of the last 10 meetings between the sides have had at least four goals.

The signs this season look good for another high-scoring game, with Everton less defensively secure (only two clean sheets in their first nine games) and Villa having scored in eight straight league games since their opening-day 2-0 defeat at home to Wigan. Everton have scored in all five home games, so the chances of both teams scoring look good.

Lay Mallorca at [1.9] v Santander

Mallorca have won all four home games this season, but that form is not quite as strong as it looks and might mean they are overrated for this match. They were handed an easy start at home, with their first two games against promoted teams and the next two against a pair of teams that finished in the bottom six last season.

With Racing currently fifth-bottom, this might appear to be another good opportunity for Mallorca, but Racing were mid-table last season (only five points behind Mallorca) and might be open to improvement. They are unbeaten in four away games and two of their three defeats overall were against Barcelona and Valencia, so they should give Mallorca a good test.

Lay Rennes at [1.78] v Valenciennes

Home teams keep being put up at odds-on against Valenciennes and they keep being stung, with the unfashionable outfit having won at Toulouse, Sochaux and St Etienne already this season. Their two away defeats were narrow 1-0 at Lyon and 3-2 at Nice, who last weekend had a much more decisive 4-1 home win over Lyon. Only Lyon have kept a clean sheet in Valenciennes' five away games, and their improved scoring record is a good omen, as Rennes are heavily reliant on keeping a clean sheet at home. Since the start of last season, Rennes have won only three out of 10 at home when conceding, which indicates they are another risk against the progressive visitors.