The Pay As You Lay Column: Chelsea and Inter are vulnerable

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 18 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Florian Malouda's Chelsea may drop their first points of the season at home to Tottenham on Sunday.

"Tottenham are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Chelsea and were the only team to beat the Blues in 23 games during Guus Hiddink’s tenure last season."

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week Andrew turns his attentions to the Premier League, Ligue 1 and Serie A.

Lay Chelsea at [1.55] v Tottenham

Since their last title win this has been the type of fixture in which to oppose Chelsea at short odds, as they have won only 12 out of 27 at home to top-half finishers in the past three seasons. It is too early to know whether Carlo Ancelotti can solve that problem and this is easily his biggest test yet in the Premier League, having beaten nothing better than Sunderland and Fulham so far. Tottenham are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Chelsea and were the only team to beat the Blues in 23 games during Guus Hiddink's tenure last season. Despite last week's 3-1 home defeat by Manchester United, Harry Redknapp has taken something from eight out of 12 games against big-four opposition since taking over as Tottenham manager 11 months ago.

Lay Sochaux at [1.99] v Valenciennes

Sochaux narrowly avoided relegation last season and do not look much better this season, lying 12th with six points from their first five games. Last season no surviving team won fewer games than Sochaux's paltry tally of 10 and, though eight of those came at home, they hardly appeal as an odds-on shot. Valenciennes did not win on the road last season, but they were tough to beat, drawing 10 of their 19 away games. They did break that duck in that last away game, beating Toulouse 1-0, and could get something again as they take on similar opposition.

Lay Inter Milan at [1.67] v Cagliari

The Serie A elite are always vulnerable when they visit Sardinia, and Inter are no exception. Since Cagliari returned to the top flight in 2004/05, Inter have won there just once in six visits in league and cup, and last season their 2-1 defeat at Cagliari was one of only four they suffered on their way to another title. That was late in the season, with the title already secured, but Cagliari drew 1-1 at the San Siro in mid-season and could be just as solid this season despite a slow start. The big negative for Cagliari has been the loss of Robert Acquafresca's goals, but Massimiliano Allegri is a smart coach and made things tough last season for visiting big teams, losing to only two of the eight teams that finished above Cagliari in the table.