The Pay As You Lay Column: Anglo-French treble

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 12 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ashley Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor will have to be at their best if Aston Villa are to improve on a distinctly average home record.

"The most worrying statistic for Villa backers is that their home record was on the slide as last season progressed. After the turn of the year, they won only three out of nine home league games and all three were against teams in the thick of the relegation battle – West Brom, Hull and Newcastle."

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. Here are week one's picks.

Lay Aston Villa at [1.75] v Wigan

Outside the big four, the shortest-priced team on the opening weekend of the Premier League is Aston Villa at home to Wigan, and Martin O'Neill's team are worth taking on.

Only five teams won fewer home games than Villa last season (those five all finished in the bottom six) and overall Villa's home win rate under Martin O'Neill is 42%, which makes them a risk for any odds-on backer.

The most worrying statistic for Villa backers is that their home record was on the slide as last season progressed. After the turn of the year, they won only three out of nine home league games and all three were against teams in the thick of the relegation battle - West Brom, Hull and Newcastle.

Wigan under Roberto Martinez are a bit of an unknown quantity, but one quality they should have is the ability to keep possession. Martinez sets great store by holding on to the ball and that made his previous club, Swansea, difficult to beat. Last season, in the Championship, only Birmingham lost fewer games than Swansea and the previous season, in League One, they had the joint-fewest number of defeats.

The Premier League is a step up for Martinez, and Steve Bruce is a hard act to follow, but Wigan could be hard to beat this season if the new boss can get them playing in his preferred style.

Among the established Wigan players, there should be no fear of Villa Park, where they are unbeaten in four visits since joining the Premier League (two wins, two draws).

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.84] in Wolves v West Ham

There is a strong pointer to under 2.5 goals here in West Ham's away record under Gianfranco Zola (12 out of 17 under 2.5 goals) but a crucial figure is that they scored in nine of their 10 visits to bottom-half finishers, which makes a West Ham goal likely against the promoted Championship winners, who at the outset must be regarded as likely to fall into the bottom half of the table.

The question, then, will be whether Wolves can score too, as that would tilt the balance firmly towards over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in six of West Ham's away games against bottom-half finishers last season, and four of those went over 2.5 goals.
While they have to prove they can handle the step up in class, Wolves were the highest scorers in the Championship last season and found the net in 20 of their 23 home games, with 13 of the 23 going over 2.5 goals.

Lay Marseille at [1.82] v Lille

Lyon and Marseille, two of the biggest names in France, were opposable at short odds at home last season and it is worth sticking with that policy until there is clear evidence of improvement in their home form.

It is tempting to start with a lay of Lyon at [1.36], but visitors Valenciennes are one of the most uninspiring away teams in Europe and they are likely to rely on keeping a clean sheet as their best chance of taking something. This fixture was 0-0 last season, but if Lyon score this time they are likely to win.

There is better mileage in laying Marseille at [1.82], as they had the worst home record and the highest number of home goals-against among the top six teams last season. Visitors Lille lost only three out of 12 when scoring on the road last season - including 2-2 draws at top-three finishers Bordeaux, Marseille and Lyon - and they can make life difficult for Marseille again.