The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Columns: Midweek goal drought

Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 09 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Jamie Carragher's Liverpool will be in action against Arsenal this Wednesday and it should be a low-scoring affair

"Liverpool are past masters at defending as a unit in big games and although I have backed the overs in this fixture for the last three seasons, I am firmly with the under 2.5 goal option on this occasion."

All three of Ed Nicholson's midweek selections are "under 2.5 goals" affairs this time round but in which matches does he expect the goals to dry up?

Wigan v Stoke

Stoke are very poor away from home and seem to rely on their 'group' defending to get them points as five draws from 11 away games clearly demonstrates. Just four goals from these 11 games makes very poor reading.

However, a truly fascinating statistic is that the Potters have only conceded 13 times on the road this term - that's the fourth best record in the league - only two behind Aston Villa and one behind Man Utd and Chelsea.

Prior to their match at the Stadium of Light last Monday, Stoke hadn't played away from the Britannia this year. In their last four away games they have only managed 15 shots on target (SOTs) and haven't scored a goal.

Wigan too are finding goals difficult to come by - a mere ten at home in ten games is the second worse return in the league. However, they are quite tight at the back, having conceded just 14 times.

Wigan have scored three goals in their last three games at home. However, they have created 22 SOTs in this time. The reverse fixture between these two saw an open game, and four goals - but the last three fixtures at Wigan over the last six seasons has seen 0-0, 0-1 and 2-1 score lines.

Recommendation

Given that the home team have trouble scoring at home and the away team have trouble scoring away from home, the bet has to be under 2.5 goals. I feel Stoke will be happy with a point - while Wigan dare not lose this game.

1pt under 2.5 goals [1.72]

Arsenal v Liverpool

Two years ago this fixture was sandwiched in between two Champions League encounters, and finished 1-1. Liverpool took the lead after 42 minutes when Peter Crouch scored, but Niklas Bendtner managed to equalise after 54 minutes. There were not many chances - the Gunners had 6 SOTs; Liverpool 4 SOTs - and Liverpool had a defensive team with Gerrard only coming off the bench after 66 minutes, and Torres not until the 80th minute. Last season, the game also finished 1-1, and again there were few chances. Arsenal had 3 SOTs; Liverpool 6 SOTs. And again, Rafa Benitez was cautious. Liverpool were a man up (and at 1-1) when Adebayor got sent off in the 62nd minute. But Rafa Benitez was more concerned with securing the point rather than going for what was a much needed victory at the time. And his cautious approach to this fixture in recent times leads me to think this will be another under 2.5 goal game. Liverpool have scored just 12 times away from home this term. In the last two seasons of Big Four matches, Arsenal and Liverpool have drawn more often than both Chelsea and Man Utd.

Arsenal have lost heavily against Man Utd and clinically to Chelsea in the last week, and so I believe that Arsene Wenger will be looking for an improved defensive performance on Wednesday night at the Emirates. Liverpool are past masters at defending as a unit in big games and although I have backed the overs in this fixture for the last three seasons, I am firmly with the under 2.5 goal option on this occasion.

Recommendation:

1pt under 2.5 goals @ [1.88]

Aston Villa v Man Utd

Aston Villa have conceded just seven goals away from home all season - that's the best home defence in the league. They have also only scored 17 times in 12 Premier League matches at Villa Park - the sixth worst. Man Utd meanwhile have conceded just 12 goals away from Old Trafford. In this fixture over the last six years Villa have only managed to score once against the Reds, while they have lost five of those six, although they drew 0-0 last term. Four of those six games were under 2.5 goal games, and the average number goals per game stands at 2.167 despite individual 1-4 and 0-3 score lines.

Man Utd may have scored five against Portsmouth on Saturday - but three of those were own goals, they only had eight SOTs all game and it took them 40 minutes to score their first. In short, I feel there is a real chance of a low scoring game.

Recommendation

The under 2.5 goals option is simply too huge a price to ignore. Both teams have very good defences and both sides have momentum and motivation. And, a draw would not be a bad result for either side.

2pts under 2.5 goals @ [1.91]