Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 02 April 2009 / Leave a comment

One of betting.betfair.com's favourite columns is back on Premier League duty to tell us why free-scoring Arsenal may be involved in a low-scoring match for a change on Saturday as Man City come to town. But Ed Nicholson's best bet is: Blackburn v Spurs Over 2.5 goals @ [2.18].

Arsenal v Manchester City

Arsenal look a completely different team when Eduardo and Arshavin play, and once they can call upon a fit-again Theo Walcott and Cesc Fabregas I expect to see the Gunners to consistently score goals against the very best. And that applies to the Premier League, the FA Cup or even the Champions League. That said, I feel they may struggle to score more than two goals on Saturday against Man City .

City are poor away from home, winning just once in fifteen games on the road this season, conceding plenty in the process (they have the sixth worst record ) and scoring just 15 times. They have scored just one goal in their last five Premier League games away from Eastlands, although it should be mentioned that they did draw 1-1 at Anfield.

Arsenal on the other hand are playing the best football of their season, and scoring goals. If there was a league table for the last 10 games, the Gunners would be sitting in second place having won five and drawn five, scoring 15 times and conceding just four times. During this time they have won Premier League home games against Bolton and Blackburn, but also drawn 0-0 against Fulham, Sunderland and West Brom.

But, they have also scored ten goals in their last three league matches and the current Gunners side look like a team full of confidence and have the momentum to pull clear of Aston Villa and claim the all important fourth champions League place, which they're [1.28] to do.

Arsenal have won their last three home encounters against Man City winning 1-0, 3-1 and 1-0. Before that it was 1-1, 2-1, 2-1 and 5-0.

Recommendation

Ever since Aston Villa came to play the first competitive match at the Emirates, theorists have argued that away teams over-perform when coming to this wonderful stadium, and although City under-perform when playing away from home, it could be argued that they will give Arsenal a game based on this theory alone. However, this Arsenal side have motivation, momentum and confidence, and it may be that they will have too much for this under performing City side.
But City's last five games have all been under 2.5 goal affairs, while 53.34% of their away games this season have ended with less than three goals having been scored. This looks a good option at the prices to play the unders.

1pt Arsenal v Man City Under 2.5 goals @ [1.90]

Blackburn v Spurs

Blackburn are precariously close to the relegation zone and need points quickly, even though they have picked up 13 points in their last ten games. Rovers are in 17th place - just two points ahead of Newcastle.

In a league based just on home games, Blackburn would be rock bottom. There are only three teams that have scored less than their 16 home goals this term, while only four teams have conceded more than Blackburn. Spurs have scored 20 goals on the road (more than when playing at home). This is the fifth highest away goal scoring record in the league, while Tottenham's goals-against record, 25, is the 6th worst defensive record.

Spurs have scored at least one goal on each of their last four games on the road, and Harry Redknapp's side have been involved in three over 2.5 goal encounters in their last four away games.

The recent head-to-head records between these two suggest a low scoring draw, with two 1-1's being preceded by two 0-0's. But Spurs haven't lost since the end of January and it may be that their confidence and momentum may see them through here. A low scoring Spurs victory is a distinct possibility, but with Blackburn desperate for points I feel that they should score at least once.

Recommendation
Although this fixture is usually a low scoring event (the last five Ewood Park encounters have all been under 2.5 goal games) recent form suggest a higher scoring match. But given the strong trend, I'll have a saver on the 1-1.

2pts Blackburn v Spurs Over 2.5 goals @ [2.18]

0.25pt Blackburn v Spurs 1-1 @ [7.2]

Fulham v Liverpool

This is an intriguing fixture between two in-form, confident sides. Both teams are scoring goals, especially Liverpool. Fulham do not concede too many goals at home - they are averaging just 0.80 a conceded goal per home game. Liverpool meanwhile are averaging just 0.86 a conceded goal per away game. Liverpool have scored 27 goals on the road, the best record in the league, while Fulham have scored 24 goals at home (only three teams have better home goal scoring records).

Recommendation

The last three Craven Cottage encounters between these two have been under 2.5 goal affairs (0-2, 1-0 and 2-0). Given that many of Liverpool's team will have been involved in International duty, and some of Fulham's as well, I reckon that the game will lack a little of the usual cut and thrust of a Premier League contest. Liverpool will just want to return to the North West with three points and a 0-1 or 0-2 victory is a possibility. But the 0-0 and 1-1 are real possibilities too and a play on the unders at the prices is the call.

1pt Under 2.5 goals Fulham v Liverpool @ [1.78]