Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 27 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Man Utd to thrash Middlesbrough? Arsenal to do the same to Portsmouth? Goals galore as Newcastle host Liverpool and an in-form Robbie Keane? Ed Nicholson doesn't think any of these scenarios are on the cards. Here's why...

Newcastle v Liverpool

Liverpool are playing well and scoring goals even without Fernando Torres, but the Spaniard is expected to return to the Reds starting line-up on Sunday against Newcastle,and many will see that as a reason to back over 2.5 goals in this match.

This fixture is traditionally a high scoring affair. The last three results have been 0-3, 1-2 and 1-3 and there have been seven over 2.5 goal games in the last ten years.

Newcastle have also recently been scoring goals at St James's Park, two in each of their last five home games, while seven of their nine home games have contained at least three goals.

Liverpool are very difficult to beat when playing away from Anfield, and they just do not concede goals. Only six have been conceded in nine Premiership games, the second best record in the league. It's worth noting that only three of those nine away games have been over 2.5 goal contests though.

Liverpool come into this match following a 3-0 demolition of Bolton, with Robbie Keane having netted a brace. Newcastle, however, lost 2-1 against Wigan and the Addicks now have injury problems with several key players including Jose Enrique, Mark Viduka and Habib Beye all out of this encounter while defender Sebastien Bassong is suspended.

Liverpool's tactics at the Emirates disappointed me, but did not surprise me. With a one man advantage and at 1-1 I am sure Man Utd or even Arsenal themselves would have gone for all three points. But the Reds decided to keep what they had - and Sammy Lee seemed happy with the point, stating that they would have accepted that before kicking off.

This is important as it demonstrates their approach when playing potentially hard games on the road and it also explains why they will find it difficult to win the Premiership.

Recommendation

With Torres likely to play some part, I feel that the over 2.5 goal option may become overbet, Although the head to head record between the two significantly favours the overs option, and given Newcastle's home games have been peppered with high scoring games, you would expect to see many favouring the overs option, but I can't see a depleted Newcastle team causing Liverpool's excellent defence too many problems. If Liverpool score first (1.67 to do so) I see them protecting what they have. If Newcastle score early it could be different, but I am siding with a small play on the unders.

1pt Newcastle v Liverpool Under 2.5 goals @ [1.90]

Arsenal v Portsmouth

Tony Adams takes on his old boss, Arsene Wenger, and it will be interesting to see how his Pompey players respond to losing 1-4 at Fratton Park to West Ham on Friday.

One of my angles into a game is to find a club that has just had a heavy defeat as invariably their next match tends to produce fewer goals. This, I feel, occurs as a club will tend to concentrate on improving defence at the expense of analysing their attack options in the run up to their next game, with the team and manager conscious of not losing by so many the next time they play.

However, with just two days between Friday's and Sunday's Premiership fixtures, Portsmouth have little time to do this. But, having listened to Tony Adams I believe that he will have a defensive mind set for his visit to the Emirates with a point being his primary objective.

Arsenal on the other hand will be expected to collect all three points, but they too may be conscious of not giving away a lead, as they conceded two late goals at Villa Park on Friday evening, having done the same against Spurs earlier in the season.

Arsenal are not as prolific in front of their own fans as they have been in recent seasons, scoring just 16 goals in 9 games. They have also lost to Hull, Aston Villa and conceded 11 times. There have also only been four over 2.5 goal affairs at the Emirates.

Portsmouth have conceded fewer goals away from home than at Fratton Park, but have only managed to score seven times away from home - that's the second worst away scoring record in the Premiership.

When these two have played in North London goals have been scored. Four of the last five fixtures have been over 2.5 goal affairs, with score lines of 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 3-0 and 1-1.

Recommendation

Given the Boxing Day results, and more importantly, performances of both sides, I feel that a play on the unders is the correct approach to this game. I fully admit that Arsenal could win this 3-0 or 4-0, but given the circumstances of this game and that the hugely influential figures of Cesc Fabregas and Theo Walcott miss the game, I will go low on goals but have a saver on 3-0.

2pts Arsenal v Portsmouth Under 2.5 golas @ 2.12
0.2pts Arsenal v Portsmouth 3-0 @ 7.0

Man Utd v Middlesbrough

United usually struggle to win this fixture. Before last year's 4-1 thrashing the Red Devils had drawn the previous four Old Trafford games against Boro.

In recent seasons Boro have become an annoying thorn in the side for not just United but all four of the so-called Big Four clubs. They regularly over perform against these teams and given very poor performances against Fulham and Everton in recent weeks, it would be typical of Boro to get a point here.

United have been rather lethargic of late, finding goals extremely difficult to come by. Sooner rather than later they will post a big score game but will it be here?

Recommendation

Given that the United players are probably still feeling the effects of their trip to Japan, and that Boro will come for a point, I rate the unders a decent bet at 2.32. But in the knowledge that Cristiano Ronaldo could turn it on at any stage, I will also have a saver on the 3-0.

2pts Man Utd v Middlesbrough Under 2.5 goals @ [2.32]
0.25 Man Utd v Middlesbrough
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