The Over/Under 2.5 Goals column: A goal-fuelled Merseyside derby

Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 27 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dirk Kuyt got both goals in Liverpool's super-controversial 2-1 win a couple of seasons ago and is always a goal threat irrespective of where Rafa Benitez decides to play him.

"But this is one fixture I always want to be with the overs as the strong record of entertaining games between these two sides at Goodison is a stark contrast to the low scoring matches at Anfield."

Over/Under 2.5 goals specialist Ed Nicholson has been studying his favourite market across this weekend's Premier League matches and talks us his through his selections.

Everton v Liverpool

This game usually has goals aplenty. In the last nine years 28 goals have been scored and seven matches have finished with three goals or more.

Last season Liverpool made it nine wins in the last 21 Goodison Park encounters winning 0-2, and in the year previous to that Liverpool won 1-2 thanks to two Dirk Kuyt goals, and to two Everton players being sent off.

This season both teams have experienced defensive frailties and I would be surprised if we didn't see goals once more. Liverpool have been missing the firepower of Fernando Torres, but they possess players capable of scoring goals all around the park and as explained before, the stats suggest that they are more than capable of netting without either Torres or Gerrard - in fact, they are arguably better value to be involved in over 2.5 goal games without the dynamic duo. It's at the back that the Reds could struggle.

Everton meanwhile continue to concede goals. Their midweek fixture away to Hull demonstrated how poorly they can defend as they conceded three goals in 28 mins. David Moyes admitted that although traditionally they have been very good at the back, this season they have not looked so good. And it couldn't have come as a surprise to followers of the team to see them concede three goals, though Everton did only concede seven shots on target against Hull. More worringly though, they only created three SOTs themselves.

Recommendation:

David Moyes will have been at pains to ensure his players know how important this game is to the fans. Usually in a local derby this would have the tendency to be an "unders" match because both teams would want to avoid a defeat at all costs.

But this is one fixture I always want to be with the overs as the strong record of entertaining games between these two sides at Goodison is a stark contrast to the low scoring matches at Anfield.

1pt Over 2.5 goals @ [2.04]
0.2pt 1-1 @ [7.4]

Wigan v Sunderland

Wigan embarrasingly let nine in at White Hart Lane and that freak result means that many will want to be with the goals in this match.

But I like to be with the unders involving matches with teams who have been on the wrong end of a thrashing. This is mainly because bettors place too much emphasis on just one result. Also, there is no doubt that Wigan will be over cautious and concentrate more on defence than perhaps they might have done had that freak result not occurred.

The unders at [1.81] does look a solid suggestion, especially when you look at the recent head-to-head records between the two at the JBB Stadium. Four of the last five contests have been under 2.5 goal encounters, while three have been under 1.5 goal matches.

Sunderland may have beaten Arsenal last weekend, but the victory was built on defence and not attack - the Black Cats only had one shot on target all game, while they allowed a hitherto impressive Gunners attack just three SOTs.

Recommendation:

1pt under 2.5 goals @ 1.81

Arsenal v Chelsea

This game involves the two highest scoring teams in the league and goals tend to flow at this fixture. Three of the last six North London fixtures have been over 2.5 goal matches, while no less than 17 goals have been scored in those six games, including five last season. Chelsea continue to score goals and last week's 4-0 win over Wolves was most impressive given that key attack-minded players were missing. Lampard returns and he was looking like a player reaching goal-scoring form to me. Arsenal may be missing van Persie but they only know how to play one way at the Emirates and goals are expected once more.

Recommendation:

1pt over 2.5 goals @ 2.02