Televised Premier League Preview: Hull City v Aston Villa

Premier League / Richard Walker / 30 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Late goals have had a big say in the televised matches of late. And while Richard Walker's form is holding up well over Christmas, the late excitement in matches has caught him out as well...

I was well pleased with the suggestion to 'Lay Villa' - rather than 'Back Arsenal' - for the Boxing Day thriller when Zat Knight swung his left foot to great effect. Similarly, however, I was sitting pretty with Blackburn win (Match Odds), Blackburn win 1-0 (Correct Score) and Benni McCarthy (First Goalscorer (in the bag, that one, at least!!) when Rovers stupidly score a second and prompt City to do what they do best: just go for all-out attack. Two apiece the final score with, I'm sure, some big numbers traded on the exchange late on.

So if I'm a little wary for this one, forgive me. With Villa, anything's possible and Hull have already shown that to be true about themselves countless times already.

Injury news is interesting on both sides. Sam Ricketts' return for the Tigers will help their defensive shape, which seemed all awry during their Eastlands drubbing. However, I make Villa centre-half Martin Laursen a big miss for them. Take away the goal from the Arsenal game, and Knight's contribution would've been measured negatively. So often out of position and easy to move around, he and Curtis Davies are vulnerable as a pair. Add to that Nigel Reo-Coker filling in at right-back if Carlos Cuellar doesn't make it and there's City's inspiration to attack.

That should form part of Phil Brown's team-talk, probably to be conducted inside the dressing-room this time. It'll be interesting to see what reaction he gets from his squad after that public humiliation. Professional footballers don't usually take kindly to that sort of thing.

Getting down to the numbers, and I'm finding [1.99] a little thin to support Villa, but wouldn't put you off. Lay Hull to a [4.4] liability is the order of the day, although if you're a back-only type, around evens is decent enough for Martin O'Neill's side.

As Ed Nicholson alluded to in his Over/Under 2.5 goals column re. Pompey at Arsenal, a team coming off a beating will set up to be hard to beat, first and foremost. Ed was right - and I'll stick with his theory in suggesting Unders at [2.16] in the 2.5 goals market. Overs, the more logical choice given both team's usual intent, is at [1.84] and I'd forgive anyone for migrating towards it. I see Brown, though, saying we'll take a point at least.

Villa/Draw [17.0] is my chief Half-Time/Full-Time suggestion, with Draw/Villa [5.8] a good cover at reasonable odds.

As I've gone for Unders, I think 2-0 to Villa has got a decent chance of happening. If Hull are busy concentrating on defence, they just might not be so expansive going forward - or prepared to commit so many man to establishing a lead. 2-0 is rated a [13.5] chance to back, with 1-0 to the visitors at [9.4] worthy of consideration.

Ashley Young is [3.2] To Score at any time and I'm sticking with him. He's weighed us in before and now's no time to desert his qualities. For the home side, his former Watford colleague Marlon King has a chance of being among the goals, priced at [2.94] To Score. Both lads are [8.4] in the First Goalscorer list if you prefer slightly longer odds of reward.

One thing's for sure, I reckon in-running players will be poised to strike once again come injury-time. It's that sort of Chritsmas!