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Same Teams, Same Stadium, Same Week, Same Result?

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Frank Gregan looks ahead to West Ham's visit to Eastlands. We should know all about this fixture as the last time it took place was just a few days ago, but how much can we use the evidence of that game to predict the outcome of this one?

Less than 96 hours will have passed since their dour FA Cup replay. Despite that, Manchester City and West Ham have to do battle again in the same stadium, this time in the Premier League. It will be strange for both sides, these things rarely happen in the game, two legged affairs are played at different venues and are punctuated by other games. The other factor is the nature of the competitions, both the FA Cup and the League are vitally important to both these clubs, there is no opportunity to field a weaker side in one of the matches.

From a punters perspective it should be manna from heaven. Can you imagine this as a horse race: two horses, running in exactly the same type of race, in the same conditions, at the same track within 4 days. If you are a follower of form there can be only one bet for you - it has to be a repeat of Wednesday night. Why on earth should there be a reversal of the result? Would you get odds of 2.14 on a horse in the same circumstances? Not a chance.

However, this is football and it is a law unto itself. One of the things that I constantly tell players at half time or during a post match analysis is "It isn't chess!" That is to say, you can have had the best preparation possible, briefed everyone on their individual and collective responsibilities and approached the game with a positive game plan. Everything that you wanted to achieve could have almost been achieved yet you have still lost the game. The reason is that the game changes on big moments. Big moments change and decide football matches.

Even the most ardent City fan (and I have a massive soft spot for them as they were a superb club to work for) will admit that West Ham were unfortunate to lose on Wednesday night. West Ham had the better chances but the big moments, the game defining incidents went City's way. I think Dean Ashton is a brilliant talent, we looked at him long and hard at Man City when he was at Crewe, but he was awful in front of goal on Wednesday night. Had he shown more composure it would probably be West Ham and not City playing Sheffield United in the fourth round.

Conversely there is an argument that Man City did not play at all well but still won. West Ham will have been pleased with their endeavour and performance but lost. Conclusion - City can and should be better on Saturday and West Ham are unlikely to be able to improve. Back to the horse racing analogy - can there really be such a massive reversal of form? The answer is yes and this is where Mr Curbishley will be earning his corn. He will be instilling in his players a sense of belief and a sense of injustice. He will go through the DVD and highlight all the big moments and show how different it could have been if the game definers had gone their way. He'll go through the statistical analysis, entries into the opponents final third, shots on and off target, corners won etc. But the emphasis will be on the big moments and the occasions when they could have been 1-0 up, then 2-0 up and firmly in the driving seat. It didn't happen for them on Wednesday but they did enough to be able to draw sufficient positives to be going into this weekend's game full of confidence.

The incentive for Manchester City is huge: a win will put them 10 points clear of West Ham with a game in hand. Their home record is formidable and they will certainly want to continue the run. For me, it all boils down to value. City at 2.14 or West Ham at 4.3. That is a massive difference in price, and I certainly didn't think there was that big a difference in Man City's' favour on the park in midweek. West Ham for me at 4.3!