Premiership Non-Televised Matches: Three points for Arsenal but don't rule out a shock defeat for Chelsea at Fulham

Premier League / Robert Hughes / 27 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

There are two live televised Premiership matches on Sunday afternoon but away from the cameras, a further six are taking place. Robert Hughes talks you through everything you need to know before having a flutter, starting with a seemingly straightforward win for Arsenal at home to Portsmouth.

Arsenal v Portsmouth

Arsenal were denied victory by a late equaliser at Villa, and have now drawn their last three games. Portsmouth's initial period of stability under new manager Tony Adams has come to an end, with their defeat to West Ham being their third in a row - they have also won only twice away from home. It's difficult to foresee anything other than a home win here, an outcome which can be backed at [1.44]. Matches involving these two teams have produced an average of 2.76 goals per game, so I'd consider backing Over 2.5 Goals, at [1.83]. Of the 22 goals which Portsmouth have conceded this season, 19 have been scored in the second half, so if you can see Arsenal struggling to break them down initially, but making the breakthrough after half time, you can back Draw / Arsenal at [4.3] in the Half Time / Full Time market.

Bolton v Wigan

Bolton's predictable defeat at Liverpool on Boxing Day was their third in their last four games. They also do not have a great home record this season, having lost four times already at the Reebok Stadium. Wigan have won their last two matches, but they were both at home - on their travels, they have won only two and lost four out of eight. Given both teams' form, a draw would appear to be the most likely outcome, and this result can be backed at [3.3], while in the Correct Score market, a goalless draw is currently around [9.6]. However, there may be some value in the [3.65] available for a Wigan victory; while Amr Zaki, who scored the winner against Newcastle having gone seven games without a goal, can be backed at around [3.0] to score again here.

Everton v Sunderland

Everton's win at Middlesbrough means that they are now unbeaten in their last three matches. However, they do have a poor home record this season, with just one win out of nine. Sunderland's goalless home draw with Blackburn was something of an anti-climax following the eight goals they had scored in their previous two games, but they are still unbeaten in their last four matches. Given Everton's struggles at home this season, you might want to consider backing the draw, at [3.55], while a 1-1 scoreline is available at [7.8]. Sunderland's last five games have produced 15 goals (an average of three per game), so there's a chance that there might be a few more goals here, and Over 2.5 Goals can be backed at [2.14].

Fulham v Chelsea

Fulham, having won six out of nine (with only one defeat) at home, have one of the division's best home records, while Chelsea have accumulated 25 out of a possible 27 points away this season. Following two successive draws, Chelsea got back to winning ways against West Brom on Boxing Day, while Fulham's draw at Tottenham was their fifth in six games, and they are now unbeaten in eight matches. Given Fulham's form at Craven Cottage this season, a home win is not out of the question here, and might be of interest at [6.6]. However, Fulham have also drawn 0-0 on five occasions this season, and this scoreline can be backed at [11.5]. Neither team has been scoring prolifically recently, and on average their matches have produced only 1.97 goals per game, so Under 2.5 Goals is also worth considering, at [1.79].

West Brom v Tottenham

West Brom's predictable loss at Chelsea was their eighth away defeat - not surprisingly, they have performed better at home, with three wins out of nine. Tottenham, having drawn 0-0 with Fulham on Boxing Day, are now without a win in three games, and have won only two out of nine away from home. An away win can be backed at [2.24], but given Tottenham's struggles of late and the recent improvement in Albion's performances, there may be some value in the [3.6] available for a home victory. Looking at the goalscorer options, David Bentley may have scored only one League goal this season, but he is always a threat from set pieces, and can be backed at around [5.0] to score in this one.

West Ham v Stoke

West Ham's 4-1 win at Portsmouth was their first win in five games; they have not been particularly impressive at home this season, having lost five times already. Meanwhile, Stoke performed admirably against Man Utd, but their narrow defeat means they are without a win in five matches, and they are one of only two teams in the division who have yet to win away from home. With this in mind, a home win is definitely worth considering, at [1.81], although if you fancy Stoke to frustrate their opponents as they have done with a few other teams this season, the draw can be backed at [3.6]. Neither of these two are particularly strong defensively, having conceded a total of 58 goals between them this season, so Over 2.5 Goals is worth considering, at [2.02].