Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 23 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Ed Nicholson's recommendations to play on the over/under 2.5 goals market this weekend come from Upton Park and Stamford Bridge but which one does he think will have goals and which one does he think won't?

Ed's column produced the goods yet again last week when he correctly recommended two 2pt bets that brought his profits up to 9.11pts (incl. 5% commission) on 34.20pts in ten weeks. This week he goes against the crowd by suggesting a punt on there being goals at Stamford Bridge, while he feels there maybe rather less goalmouth action at Upton Park.

Chelsea v Liverpool

On the last seven occasions that Chelsea have hosted Liverpool in the Premiership there have been very few goals. In total just six goals have been scored in those seven games, with the Reds managing to breach the Blues' defence just once during that time at Stamford Bridge. You have to go back to 2002/3 for a game of three goals or more, but I feel there are genuine reasons for believing that the over 2.5 goals option may be just a shade too high at [2.40].

Last season Liverpool came to West London having beaten Sunderland 3-0 eight days previously, but after the goalless draw at Stamford Bridge the Reds embarrassingly lost to Barnsley in the FA Cup at Anfield. The Reds played with a 4-4-2, but in an ultra defensive set up against Chelsea and Benitez's priority was certainly one of looking more not to lose than to collect all three points. Avram Grant also set up his side with defence in mind - Lampard started but came off after 71 minutes replaced by Obi Mikel while Anelka was the only recognised centre forward starting the game for the Blues in a 4-3-3 set up that included both Wright-Phillips and Joe Cole. Claude Makelele sat deep and three of the four Chelsea defenders received yellow cards - John Terry didn't play.

Chelsea's recent performances strongly suggest that goals can be expected whatever the opposition, as Phil Scolari's side have netted 17 goals in just eight Premiership performances.

Liverpool have scored 13 goals in eight games, and they have scored eight of these in the last three matches. Both sides, it would seem are in a rich vein of form when it comes to scoring goals and both are confident.

The key to this game being an over 2.5 goals event is, as so often is the case, whether the away side can hit the target. If Fernando Torres was certain to start and was fully fit I feel that he would be around 7/4 to score. Without him, the Reds are obviously not so potent but with Dirk Kuyt, Robbie Keane and Steven Gerrard all capable of scoring, there's still plenty of hope that the away team can score even without Torres. Chelsea on the other hand haven't failed to score at home in the Premiership since playing Liverpool on 10th February - that's fourteen home games ago. In fact, last season Chelsea failed to score in just six games altogether and they may welcome Didier Drogba back to the team on Sunday.

Recommendation

Although in years gone by this match has been about the immoveable Liverpool defence against the impregnable Chelsea rearguard, I feel that the arrival of Phil Scolari and a real return of belief to those playing for Liverpool, plus recent goal scoring results for both sides mean that we have every chance of seeing a more open game of football here than for many a year.

Chelsea have evolved into a free scoring attack minded unit where full backs regularly join in going forward, while Liverpool seem to have found that happy knack of scoring goals when they need to and snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. [2.4] about the overs is in my opinion worth risking - although I'm a little worried that both sides could settle for a 1-1, so I will have a saver on that scoreline.

2pts Chelsea v Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 2.4
0.25 Chelsea v Liverpool 1-1 @ 7.0

West Ham v Arsenal

These London derbies tend to be low scoring affairs with the last three at Upton Park being 0-1, 1-0 and 0-0. Arsenal come here having beaten Fenerbahce 2-5 in the Champions League on Tuesday night and play Tottenham next Wednesday.

This year Arsenal have been rather unpredictable. Defeats against Hull and Fulham have shown their frailties but they have also been majestic in victory. Although their problems of yesteryear - having no plan B - has been somewhat resolved with the arrival of Theo Walcott (who can go wide down the flanks and cross deep for Emmanuel Adebayor to head home), I still feel that concentration and ultimately no real depth in talent at top level, hinders the Gunners at times. If a team can frustrate Arsene Wenger's side there is still a chance of upsetting them, knocking them off their passing game and beating them.

Although I don't think the Hammers have the class to beat Arsenal I can see them causing them problems and I envisage a game of few chances.

Last season West Ham played a 4-4-2 with both Ashton and Camara up front. They managed to get just 5 shots on target (SOTs), while Arsenal managed just 12 SOTs. Arsenal also played 4-4-2 with Adebayor and van Persie up front with Flamini and Fabregas in midfield. The game on 29th September came in between a 2-0 victory at the Emirates against Newcastle in the Carling Cup and a successful trip to Steau Bucuresti where they won 0-1.

Although many regard Arsenal as a prolific goal scoring team, they did in fact score just one goal on 15 occasions last season. To put that in context Man Utd scored just one goal 13 times, Chelsea 14 times, Liverpool just 9 times. Only Bolton, Middlesbrough, Tottenham and Wigan scored exactly one goal more often and although on its own its not the most amazing stat I've ever unearthed. it did surprise me. Allied to this fact is that the Gunners only conceded twice or more on 8 occasions, while 79% of their games ended with them conceding one or no goals at all.

Given that West Ham have conceded 13 goals in the last eight games and that Arsenal scored five against Fenerbahace and in total have slotted 15 in their last six Premiership games means we might get a little bit of value in the under 2.5 goal market. With an important game against Spurs next week and the likelihood that the trip to Turkey may have left some players a little jaded, I feel there is a chance this game may be low scoring one. West Ham have no real fire-power at present and as such I find it difficult to see them scoring more than once.

Recommendation:

Arsenal may be a little tired from playing in Turkey and may just do enough to win here. The other scenario is West Ham go 1-0 up and try to hold on as Arsenal attack. Allied to the recent head to head trend of low scoring games and given the 2.1 on offer no (may get bigger), a play on the under 2.5 goals option must be the choice.

1pt West Ham v Arsenal under 2.5 goals @ [2.10]