Premier League Stats: Manchester United v Everton

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 30 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney may not be available to dent his former club's European aspirations but Saturday's late kick-off at Old Trafford remains an intriguing prospect. Bettorlogic bring you the stats so that you can make the best bets...

Match Odds

Manchester United's thumping of 10-man West Brom in midweek has opened up daylight at the top of the Premier League table, and they will be looking to extend their lead at the top against an Everton side who have played out three 1-1 draws against the Big Four in their last three games.

Everton may have taken something from their games with Liverpool and Arsenal, but a trip to Old Trafford is a different proposition entirely. United have won 26 of their 29 games at home since the beginning of last season, failing to pick up three points only in their two home openers (Reading last season, Newcastle this season) and last season's Manchester derby.

The Toffees' Premier League record against the champions (W3-D5-L25, W1-D3-L12 at Old Trafford) does little to add to their case, nor does Moyes's overall league figures (W6-D15-L35) against the Big Four. Having said that, they have managed a reasonable number of draws (W0-D10-L18) on the road in those games, including five in 10 since the start of the 06/07 campaign (although none of the five came against Man U).

The Toffees do have one of the best away records this season (W7-D2-L2, third-best in the division) but that splits into a W7-D1-L0 against sides currently placed eighth or lower and one point from three games against the upper echelon of the league.

It is simply impossible to oppose a United side with a virtually flawless home record over the last two years and the home win has to be the selection here ([1.41]).

Correct score

Tim Cahill's strike at Anfield (one of nine against the Big Four since 04/05 -- including six of Everton's nine goals on the road in that time) means Everton have had four 1-1s in their 10 league games away to the Big Four since the start of the 06/07 season, with the 1-0 loss (two) the only other score to crop up more than once in that sample. All but one of the other 16 defeats they have suffered under Moyes against those sides has seen them concede at least two, with 3-0 and 2-1 (both four) the most common scores in those samples.

1-0 (seven) and 2-0 (six) have been by far the most common scores for United at home since the start of last season, with 2-0 (4/13) the standout in their games against top-half finishers last season and the current top half this term.

HT/FT

Everton have a very good first-half record against the Big Four (HT W7-D11-L4 home and away since 06/07), especially considering their W2-D8-L12 full-time figures. Remarkably, only the D/D (six) has occurred more often than the W/L (five) in that sample although, on the road, it is the former (4/10) that dominates their figures.

Only one of Everton's last six away defeats has seen them behind at half-time as well, with the D/L most common (4/6) in that sample and only marginally less common than the L/L over the longer term (six D/Ls, eight L/Ls since 06/07). Similarly, United's recent home form has shown a relatively strong D/W trend (10/29 since the start of last season to 16 W/Ws), including four of nine wins this season, which suggests more value in its [4.7] price than in the W/W.

Manchester Utd clean sheet

United's current run of clean sheets has been well publicised and their home figures over the longer term (21 in 29 since the start of last season) consolidate the case for them to extend that streak here.

Everton have scored in four of their six in the league against the Big Four this season, including in both away games, and have netted in half of those fixtures (9/18) since 2004/05. Those figures on their own would suggest the United clean sheet was a touch short at [1.89] but given both their current run, and their performances at home over the last two seasons, 'Yes' looks the way to go here.

Everton clean sheet

United have scored in every home league game since failing to break down Reading in their first Old Trafford match of the 07/08 season, while Everton have kept one clean sheet at the Big Four in 17 attempts since a goalless draw in this fixture at the start of the 04/05 campaign.