Premier League Stats: Hull City v Aston Villa

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 30 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Anything can happen when these two are in town but what pointers can Bettorlogic provide on Tuesday's Premier League clash?

Match Odds

Zat Knight's late equaliser means Villa retain the advantage over Arsenal in the race for fourth and, arguably, their push for a Champions League place owes more to their away form (W6-D0-L3) than their exploits at Villa Park (W4-D5-L1). The same can be said of their hosts' improbable top-half position, with Hull another of the seven teams at the league's halfway point to have a better away record (W4-D4-L2 to W3-D2-L4 at the KC Stadium).

As was demonstrated by Man City on Boxing Day, Hull's early-season momentum (W6-D2-L1 in their first nine games) seems to have been lost, with their record over their last 10 (W1-D4-L5) the third worst in the division. Their home record against the teams currently in the top half reads W1-D2-L3, with the win coming in their opening fixture against the notoriously poor-travelling Fulham.

Villa have done well against out-of-form home teams under O'Neill, going W10-D7-L3 against teams having taken fewer than half the points available from their last five at home (Hull have four) -- including nine wins in their last 12 such games. More generally, they have won 11 of 18 on the road against all non-Big Four teams in that time (W3-D1-L1 at promoted teams), all of which suggests value in their odds-against ([2.1]) win price.

Correct score

The 2-1 win (5/22) has been easily the most common score in Villa's games at non-big Four teams since the start of last season (2/7 this season), with four of those coming in their 12 most recent games at the teams with poor (seven points or fewer from their last five) home form. 2-1 (in their favour) is also the only score to occur more than once for Hull at home this season (2/9), although they came against Fulham and 'Boro.

HT/FT

All three of Hull's wins at the KC Stadium have come following a half-time draw, with two each of their defeats coming by the D/L and L/L. Villa have drawn eight of their last 10 opening periods -- including their last four in a row away from home -- with the D/W and W/W (both 3/9) their most common double results this season.

Over a longer period (under O'Neill at non-Big Four teams), the W/W stands out (10/37), with Villa recording a W/W in six of their last 12 against teams with poor home form. Those numbers suggest some value in the W/W ([3.4]) price, although on this season's form the D/W ([5.1]) should get equal consideration.

Hull clean sheet

Villa have one of the best scoring records on the road under Martin O'Neill, netting in 38 of his 47 games in charge on the road -- including 10 of the last 12 (nine of which they have scored two or more in). Hull's main problem has been at the back, shipping nine goals in the last two games and keeping three clean sheets all season (none in their last 10 and only one in nine at home), so the home clean sheet has cannot be backed.

Aston Villa clean sheet

While Hull have kept only three clean sheets themselves, they have had the same number kept against them, although all three did come at home. Villa have kept three clean sheets in their last five away games but, prior to that, had managed to blank only Derby in their last 16 away games. No prices were available for the market at the time of writing, but anything much shorter than 2.0 for the away clean sheet should probably be opposed.