Premier League Stats: Everton v Aston Villa

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 05 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Can Villa's bid to break in to the Big Four renew its momentum or will Moyes' boys kick on from last week's away win.

Match Odds

Despite their win at Arsenal, Villa's push for fourth place has lost some momentum with back-to-back goalless draws at home and only one win in their last five games. Everton meanwhile have been steadily moving up the table after their slow start, although they are still far from back to their form of the last two seasons at Goodison, with the second-worst home record in the division.

In fact, over the last two campaigns, Everton won two thirds of their home games against non-Big four sides, with Villa inflicting one of only two defeats (W20-D8-L2) in that sample. This season they have already lost two such games, picking up their solitary home win of the season against Fulham. Even including that spell of success, the Toffees have not been especially efficient against top-half teams, going W7-D6-L9 since the start of the 06/07 campaign (W5-D5-L2 excluding the Big Four). Only two of the wins have come since the start of last season (W2-D5-L6), recording draws in four of their last seven and in three of their last four, excluding the Big Four (W2-D4-L1 overall since the start of 07/08).

Villa have been extremely resilient on the road to top-half teams under Martin O'Neill as well, with their loss rate in that time (30.4%) identical to the average of the Big Four (better than Man Utd and Liverpool). Their win rate does not compare favourably to those four sides though (17.4% to the Big Four's 43.0%), with the draw easily the most common result (W4-D12-L7 and W3-D7-L4 excluding the Big Four).
All of which, coupled with both clubs' striker shortage, points to the draw at [3.45] as the way to go in this one.

Correct score

Of Villa's 12 draws at top-half sides under O'Neill, only two have been goalless, with the 2-2 (5/23) and 1-1 (4/23) occurring most often. Excluding the games against the Big Four it is the 2-2 which really stands out, with four of their 14 such games ending this way -- including in this fixture last season.

The 1-1 (5/22) has been most prevalent in Everton's home games against the top half in that time, followed by the 1-0s (4/22 wins and 3/22 losses). The 1-1 and 1-0 account for over half (4/12 and 3/12, respectively) of the non-Big Four games of that sample. The two score draws, 1-1 ([7.0]) and 2-2 ([18.0]), look best here.

HT/FT

Everton haven't had a half-time lead in any of their last six at home to top-half sides but there is no standout in their results in the HT/FT market. The D/D (7/23) dominates Villa's equivalent away games under O'Neill, accounting for five of their 14 at non-Big Four sides, and they have been level at the break in their last six league matches.

Everton clean sheet

Villa's attack has been pretty inconsistent of late, failing to net in 10 of their last 24 in the league -- but scoring at least two in all but one of the other 14. Still, they have scored in five of seven on the road this season and in 80% overall under O'Neill (70% at top-half teams).
Everton's defence is definitely on the mend, with four goals allowed in their last seven league games (three clean sheets), although they have prevented only two of their last 13 visitors from scoring at Goodison. 'No' is perhaps a touch long at [1.4] on that basis but it is not particularly appealing.

Aston Villa clean sheet

Victor Anichebe is the last man standing in Everton's front line and should start by default against a Villa team that is bidding to keep a fourth consecutive league clean sheet for the first time in over 10 years. Still, the Toffees have failed to score in only four of 35 home games against non-Big Four sides in the last two years -- one was against Villa in 2006 though.
Villa have kept only 10 clean sheets in 45 away under O'Neill, although the rate is better (4/14) at top-half teams (excluding the Big Four). As with the Everton clean sheet there is a case to be made for opposing Villa to keep a clean sheet, but little value in the price.