Premier League Betting: When this lot go ahead they stay ahead

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 07 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Jo and Yakubu of Everton celebrate; the Toffees have a an incredibly high strike rate of 82% when it comes to winning matches after scoring the first goal against non Big Four sides.

"The common characteristic with Everton, Stoke and Fulham is resilient defence, and the indications are that they will continue to be hard to peg back when scoring first."

In-running betting is now a huge part of punting on Betfair and it pays to know what should happen after the first goal of the match is scored. Everton are one of the sides who generally go on to win after taking the lead, says Andrew Atherley, but what about the others?

In-running betting, which is such a big part of the Betfair revolution, provides an excellent opportunity to make money on some of the less fashionable clubs in the Premier League.

Last season, for example, the three promoted clubs - Stoke, Hull and West Brom - were excellent teams to back if they scored first. Collectively their win rate from that position was a healthy 69%, equating to odds of [1.44], even though West Brom and Hull were both fighting a relegation battle.

This season's promoted clubs are doing even better so far, with a 100% success rate in the eight games when they have scored first. Conversely, they have lost 14 out of 15 when conceding the opening goal, which presents in-running punters with a clear black-and-white case.

A more established team with an excellent record of making it count when they open the scoring is Everton, especially against teams outside the big four. Since the start of the 2006/07 season, Everton have won 46 out of 56 in that category when scoring first, an 82% win rate. Even more impressively, and importantly for in-running players, Everton's win rate is just as high when they open the scoring in the first half in those games.

That 82% win rate equates to odds of [1.22], which in-running punters should expect to beat.

Two more largely unsung teams to note are Stoke and Fulham. Since joining the Premier League, Stoke have won 76% when scoring first against teams outside the big four, while Fulham under Roy Hodgson have done even better, winning 84% in that category.

The common characteristic with Everton, Stoke and Fulham is resilient defence, and the indications are that they will continue to be hard to peg back when scoring first.

Last season this column pointed out the lay and lay-to-back opportunities with Hull, and the trends established in their first Premier League campaign have carried over into the new season.

Only relegated West Brom and Newcastle had fewer half-time leads than Hull's five in 38 matches last season, making them a team to lay pre-match with a view to being in a position to trade by half-time. Hull turned only two of those half-time leads into wins, and this season a similar pattern is developing - they have had only one half-time lead in eight games and that match ended in a draw.

Overall, Hull have led at half-time in just six of 46 Premier League games and won only twice when they have been in front at the break. And when they have been behind at half-time, they have lost 16 out of 19, with no wins, which means pre-match layers can rest easy if Hull are trailing at the break.

The opportunity to switch position arises when Hull go in level at the break, in particular at home. Hull's two wins this season came from that position, both at home, and overall in the Premier League they have won five out of 12 home matches in which they were level at half-time. That's a respectable 42% win rate from that position - for comparison, Liverpool were 45% at home last season and Chelsea were 33%.

Since the start of last season, only four teams - Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Everton - have bettered Hull at turning half-time draws into wins. The negative with Hull's figures is that they were better during their excellent first half of last season, and this season they have lost all three away games when they were level at half-time, but still there appears to be some remaining mileage in them as a team to back when drawing at half-time in home games.