Premier League Betting: Title race turning point?

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 07 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

They may lie in lowly third place at the moment but Manchester United are favourites to win the Premier League and victory on Sunday would see their price harden while Chelsea would continue to drift, says Andrew Atherley.

The Premier League starts 2009 with a bang on Sunday when title favourites Manchester United host Chelsea, and one of the questions for punters is how much importance to attach to the result.

The answer depends to some extent on how Liverpool fare in their Saturday visit to Stoke City, where victory would give Rafa Benitez's team the cushion of a six-point lead before United and Chelsea go head to head.

Among the other possible scenarios by Sunday night are that the status quo could be maintained among the top three, Liverpool's lead could expand or decrease, Chelsea could overhaul Liverpool, United could close the gap on the two teams above them while still holding two games in hand, or United could fall further behind and even be pushed down into fourth place by Aston Villa.

Going into the weekend, United are favourites at [2.6] to claim a third consecutive title with Chelsea [3.2] and Liverpool [3.8], but those odds are open to revision by Sunday night.

The key clash, for most punters, is Sunday's showdown at Old Trafford, yet in the past four seasons, when Chelsea and United have shared the title between them with two triumphs apiece, the results of their high-profile clashes generally have not been pivotal. Only in the first of those seasons, 2004/05, has one team emerged with more points than the other from their two league encounters.

That season brought the first of Chelsea's back-to-back title triumphs under Jose Mourinho, and their August home win over United was an early statement of intent by the Special One, while their May victory at Old Trafford acted only as confirmation of Chelsea's superiority as they lifted the title by 12 points from Arsenal, with United another six points adrift.
The next season, 2005/06, brought one home win apiece - Chelsea's late-season victory at Stamford Bridge again merely the icing on the cake as they celebrated another title win that had been wrapped up before United's visit.

In 2006/07, when United wrested the title from Chelsea's grip, both league matches ended all-square - again, the late-season goalless draw at Stamford Bridge was immaterial as the title had been settled, with both teams fielding weakened teams as they turned their attention to their forthcoming showdown in the FA Cup final.

Last season's head-to-heads had more of an impact on the title race, even though the points were shared again. United's home win in September gave them an early-season advantage over Chelsea and, though Chelsea's 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge in April kept the title race alive with two games to go, United's superior goal difference ultimately gave them a winning edge on the run-in.

Sunday's match could add a new perspective to the title race as this is the first time in the Roman Abramovich era that Chelsea have met United in mid-season - their previous league meetings have been in the first three months of the campaign or late in the season, usually with the title already decided.

When the two clubs have gone head to head with some distance to go to the finish line, the outcome has had some impact on the title race. There has been a winner in three of the four meetings before the halfway point of the season, with the winner twice going on to lift the title - an interesting point is that the home team's record in those four early-season encounters is won three, drawn one, which is a possible pointer to United on Sunday. If United win, their position as title favourites would harden and Chelsea's recent drift would continue.

The most seismic shift in the title betting would be caused by a Chelsea victory, especially as away wins have been at a premium in recent big-four clashes. There have been 15 away wins in big-four matches in the past five seasons, with 11 of the 15 winners going on to finish higher in the final table than their beaten opponents.
The eventual champions have recorded more than half of those away wins (eight out of 15) and when the two teams have both finished the season in the top three, the away winner has achieved the higher placing four times out of five.

A Chelsea win would be highly significant and probably would return them to title favouritism, as it would enhance their superior goal difference over United and give them a points edge even if United won their two games in hand.

If Liverpool win at Stoke and there is a United-Chelsea draw, Liverpool's title odds are likely to shorten a little. If there are draws all round, Liverpool will be viewed as having lost ground, but that would ignore the strides Liverpool have made in big matches this season.

A United-Chelsea draw would suit Liverpool, as well as confirming their edge over those two rivals in big-four clashes this season. Liverpool have picked up seven points from three games in that category (the same as Arsenal), while United and Chelsea each have one point from three games.

That entitles Liverpool to respect in the title race, as the winners of the big four mini-league have been crowned league champions in five of the last six seasons (covering the period of big-four domination, with all four finishing in the top five in each of those six seasons).

All to play for, then, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that we will look back on the first Premier League weekend of 2009 as the turning point in the title race.